Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO
RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.

THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.

AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA.

AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 15Z MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033>038-046-047-031830-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
227 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-076-085>087-WVZ005>011-014-016>020-028>032-039-
040-031830-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
PUTNAM-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
227 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ013-015-027-031830-
LINCOLN-KANAWHA-CLAY-
227 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-083-084-031830-
PERRY-MORGAN-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
227 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNLOW                  38.02N  82.43W
05/01/2016                   WAYNE              WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN IN DUNLOW AREA INCLUDING ONE OVER HIGHWAY IN
            CABWAYLINGO STATE FOREST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600961

MAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             2 SSW LENORE            37.77N  82.30W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       MINGO              WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING ROADS NEAR NOLAN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600962

MAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
256 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WVZ034>036-021945-
FAYETTE-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
256 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RALEIGH COUNTY...

AT 255 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SOPHIA...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BECKLEY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BECKLEY...MULLENS...MABSCOTT...SOPHIA...COAL CITY...DANIELS...SHADY SPRING...
MACARTHUR...CRAB ORCHARD...STANAFORD...BEAVER...DRY CREEK...PINEY VIEW...
LESTER...RHODELL...JOSEPHINE...GHENT AND MABEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 WEST VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 29 AND 45.
 INTERSTATE 64 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 137.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3754 8137 3772 8145 3790 8093 3784 8089
      3782 8094 3777 8089 3776 8089 3774 8092
      3772 8089 3768 8088 3767 8090 3769 8090
      3771 8094 3771 8098 3770 8097 3764 8107
      3762 8107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 248DEG 29KT 3767 8132

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

VAZ004-WVZ033-034-022030-
BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUCHANAN...SOUTHWESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES...

AT 347 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAW
PAW...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRUNDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELCH...GARY...DAVY...BRADSHAW...IAEGER...JOLO...BAILEYSVILLE...COALWOOD...
ROSEANN...PANTHER...AVONDALE...STACY AND HURLEY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3725 8199 3741 8210 3763 8166 3737 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 242DEG 27KT 3737 8196

09