Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS STRONGEST...HEAVIEST AND MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF WARNING AREA...WHERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT WITH THE
SUNSET AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SET UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCN...
BREAKS IN CLOUDS OFFER A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LIS < 4 AND CAPE > 1000 J/KG AND EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND A SMALL
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORMS
TRAIPSING ACROSS AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY LAST NIGHTS RAIN. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV THIS PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IMPACTING SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

A LINE OF SH0OWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB THIS EVENING AND CKB AND PERHAPS EKN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...AND THEN SOME MVFR MIST OVERNIGHT...AND MVFR STRATOCU
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD VARY. HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE IFR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE TIMING TO PUT IN TAF EXCEPT FIRST HOUR CRW AND BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ009-022030-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>026-022030-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-
MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ010-011-017>020-027>040-046-047-022030-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
937 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             VERDUNVILLE             37.85N  82.06W
05/01/2016  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              WV   911 CALL CENTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600957

MAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ODD                     37.59N  81.19W
05/01/2016                   RALEIGH            WV   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD BETWEEN JOSEPHINE
            AND ODD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600958

MEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
954 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OHZ066-020230-
PERRY-
954 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY...

AT 954 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SOMERSET...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERSET...PERRY STATE FOREST...JUNCTION CITY AND GLENFORD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3991 8217 3982 8217 3982 8208 3980 8207
      3980 8208 3969 8235 3972 8237 3974 8236
      3974 8239 3977 8240 3983 8240 3983 8245
      3985 8246 3992 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 240DEG 49KT 3982 8232

14