Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low level frontal zone will remain quasi-stationary over NC,
while a series of upper level disturbances pass overhead, through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

Scattered convection has erupted over sections of the southern
piedmont and sandhills early this afternoon. Outflows will propagate
from these storms, initiating additional convective activity across
the remainder of the piedmont and into the coastal plain, especially
along the I-40 corridor. Convection also appears to be supported by
a nwd drifting shear axis. On current track, this feature should lie
across the northern piedmont by this evening. Thus, plan to carry
sold chance/low end likely PoPs late this afternoon-early this
evening across most of the region.

Expect the bulk of the convection to dissipate with loss of heating,
though presence of the shear axis and a tropical-like air mass will
support the potential for a few showers/storms into the overnight
hours. Min temps 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

With little change in atmospheric conditions, expect comparable
scenario Tuesday. The only differences being that convection may
initially fire over the northern counties, closer to the the stalled
mid level shear axis. While the atmosphere will be slight-moderately
unstable, weak shear will limit severe potential. May see more of a
heavy rain threat as winds aloft light, leading to slow moving
convection.

Similar to today, high temps Tuesday dependent upon when convection
fires. Expect more cloudiness north versus south so the southern
counties should reach 90-lower 90s. high temps north mainly in the
mid-upper 80s.

Scattered convection should dissipate Tuesday evening, leaving
warm/muggy conditions in its wake. Min temps low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

The long term pattern will feature a sub-tropical ridge that
persists across the Southeast through the end of the work week. The
upper-air flow across the Carolinas will be rather weak from the
west with the main westerlies confined to the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic. After a weakening surface boundary lifts northeast on
Wednesday, the main focus for convection with be associated with the
development of a Piedmont trough and localized convergence
associated with the higher terrain of the mountains and the sea
breeze. Convective coverage should be greatest on Wednesday,
especially to the northeast of Raleigh with an a minimum in coverage
on Thursday and only slightly better coverage on Friday. 500 hPa
heights increase a bit early in the period as ridging develops
across the southeast. With increasing heights, highs around 90 on
Wednesday warm to to the lower to mid 90s on thursday and Friday as
12Z low level thickness values range around 1335m. Note that the
hottest ECMWF ensemble member at FAY for Thursday gives a high of
100 with the operational giving a high of 98 and the ensemble
mean 96. Morning lows will range in the lower to middle 70s.

As the upper ridge shifts west into the Southern Plains over the
weekend into Monday, troughing develops across the eastern Great
Lakes and the Mid Atlantic. The associated cold front approaches the
southern Appalachians late Friday and then stalls across the
Virginias. Given the placement of the upper trough and the proximity
of the surface front, precipitation chances increase over the
weekend into early next week with temperatures cooling off a bit to
near to slightly above seasonal values. -blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

VFR conditions expected to prevail across central NC through mid day
Tuesday. The exception will be MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in
vicinity of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early this
evening, and pockets of IFR/LIFR conditions early Tuesday morning
where low clouds and fog develop. In addition, wind gusts 30-40kts
will occur in vicinity of the stronger storms.

A typical summer time pattern will prevail across central NC through
the work week. This suggest a threat for sub-VFR conditions due to
scattered afternoon and evening convection, and a brief period of
early morning fog and low clouds.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
535 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-122145-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
535 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-122145-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
535 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE CLINTON           35.00N 78.32W
07/11/2016                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN CLINTON.

&&

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
546 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEMBURG               35.02N 78.50W
07/11/2016                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINE IN SALEMBURG.

&&

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSEBORO                34.95N 78.51W
07/11/2016                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN IN ROSEBORO.

&&

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
628 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE NEW LONDON        35.42N 80.21W
07/11/2016                   STANLY             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN IN NORTHERN PART OF STANLY
            COUNTY.

&&

KDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
629 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ078-112300-
WAYNE   NC-
629 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF WALNUT CREEK...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA GRANGE. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEVEN SPRINGS AND CLIFFS OF THE NEUSE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 7783 3517 7787 3515 7790 3517 7792
      3525 7794 3531 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 250DEG 2KT 3520 7788

77

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