Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Raleigh, NC

130 
WWUS52 KRAH 111922
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCC093-165-111930-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-160711T1930Z/
HOKE NC-SCOTLAND NC-
322 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOKE AND EAST CENTRAL SCOTLAND COUNTIES...

AT 321 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANTIOCH...OR
NEAR RAEFORD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAEFORD...ANTIOCH...WAGRAM...SILVER CITY AND BOWMORE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 7940 3512 7927 3489 7912 3483 7919
      3484 7935 3482 7939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 268DEG 17KT 3490 7926 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BLAES

267 
WWUS52 KRAH 111929
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCC093-165-111938-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-160711T1930Z/
HOKE NC-SCOTLAND NC-
329 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOKE AND EAST
CENTRAL SCOTLAND COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3496 7940 3512 7927 3489 7912 3483 7919
      3484 7935 3482 7939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 238DEG 17KT 3490 7926 

$$

BLAES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low level frontal zone will remain quasi-stationary over NC,
while a series of upper level disturbances pass overhead, through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM Monday...

Continued heating of the moist air mass across central NC will yield
a slight-moderately unstable atmosphere by early-mid afternoon. This
should set the stage for the initiation of scattered convection. 12z
upper air analysis and meso-analysis suggest that the scattered
convection should initially fire over the southern counties, in
vicinity of a low level boundary where moisture convergence is
occurring. Outflow from this round of convection should migrate
northward, triggering additional showers and storms over the
northern piedmont by late afternoon-early evening.

While the bulk of convection will remain below severe criteria,
enough bulk shear and instability exists to support an isolated
storm or two with the primary severe weather hazard damaging wind
gusts.

High temps highly dependent upon when convection develops. A later
than expected initiation time would lead to high temps a couple of
degrees warmer than currently forecast. -WSS

Some showers and storms may continue to percolate overnight, but
with lesser coverage and intensity owing to nocturnal and diabatic
cooling (from earlier convective overturning). Overnight temps in
the low-mid 70s. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Monday...

Generally persistence, with little change in synoptic features
and sensible weather from Monday. An elongated mid-upper level
low now over the Lower to Middle MS Valley, and embedded within a
broader positively-tilted trough axis, will gradually shear NEWD
into the TN Valley through Tue night. Meanwhile, the low level
frontal zone now strengthening over central NC will remain quasi-
stationary there during the same time. The result will be another
high chance of showers and storms, maximized diurnally from midday
through early evening. In fact, a somewhat more moist BL,
characterized by surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s,
will probably favor lower convective cloud bases and LFC, with
perhaps an uptick in overall coverage of convection relative to
Monday. Associated high temperatures may accordingly be a couple
of degrees cooler than Monday - generally middle to perhaps upper
80s. Like Monday night, a chance of (weaker) showers and storms
will linger overnight, with areas of low stratus amidst the
aforementioned more moist/humid BL, and lows mainly in the middle
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

The long term pattern will feature a sub-tropical ridge that
persists across the Southeast through the end of the work week. The
upper-air flow across the Carolinas will be rather weak from the
west with the main westerlies confined to the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic. After a weakening surface boundary lifts northeast on
Wednesday, the main focus for convection with be associated with the
development of a Piedmont trough and localized convergence
associated with the higher terrain of the mountains and the sea
breeze. Convective coverage should be greatest on Wednesday,
especially to the northeast of Raleigh with an a minimum in coverage
on Thursday and only slightly better coverage on Friday. 500 hPa
heights increase a bit early in the period as ridging develops
across the southeast. With increasing heights, highs around 90 on
Wednesday warm to to the lower to mid 90s on thursday and Friday as
12Z low level thickness values range around 1335m. Note that the
hottest ECMWF ensemble member at FAY for Thursday gives a high of
100 with the operational giving a high of 98 and the ensemble
mean 96. Morning lows will range in the lower to middle 70s.

As the upper ridge shifts west into the Southern Plains over the
weekend into Monday, troughing develops across the eastern Great
Lakes and the Mid Atlantic. The associated cold front approaches the
southern Appalachians late Friday and then stalls across the
Virginias. Given the placement of the upper trough and the proximity
of the surface front, precipitation chances increase over the
weekend into early next week with temperatures cooling off a bit to
near to slightly above seasonal values. -blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

VFR conditions expected to prevail across central NC through mid day
Tuesday. The exception will be MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in
vicinity of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early this
evening, and pockets of IFR/LIFR conditions early Tuesday morning
where low clouds and fog develop. In addition, wind gusts 30-40kts
will occur in vicinity of the stronger storms.

A typical summer time pattern will prevail across central NC through
the work week. This suggest a threat for sub-VFR conditions due to
scattered afternoon and evening convection, and a brief period of
early morning fog and low clouds.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-121030-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
616 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-121030-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
616 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
118 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ074-083-084-111815-
RICHMOND   NC-ANSON   NC-MONTGOMERY   NC-
118 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
RICHMOND...EAST CENTRAL ANSON AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 117 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKINGHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELLERBE...NORMAN...COVINGTON...DERBY...
BLEWETT FALLS LAKE AND SANDHILLS GAME LAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 7988 3502 8002 3530 7971 3528 7971
      3525 7970 3524 7967 3519 7966 3517 7962
      3515 7961 3514 7959 3512 7957 3509 7958
      3508 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 227DEG 18KT 3501 7989

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
216 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ084>086-111900-
SCOTLAND   NC-RICHMOND   NC-HOKE   NC-
216 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SCOTLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND AND SOUTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HAMLET...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAURINBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURINBURG...HAMLET...HOFFMAN...DOBBINS HEIGHTS...WAGRAM...GIBSON...
SANDHILLS GAME LAND...BOWMORE...CAMP MACKALL AND LAUREL HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3480 7971 3481 7977 3507 7956
      3506 7950 3504 7946 3506 7944 3495 7927
      3471 7956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 219DEG 24KT 3483 7961

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ075-084>086-088-111945-
SCOTLAND   NC-CUMBERLAND   NC-RICHMOND   NC-HOKE   NC-MOORE   NC-
253 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

 ...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND...WEST CENTRAL CUMBERLAND...EAST CENTRAL
RICHMOND...HOKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS, ONE ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOFFMAN...OR 10 MILES
WEST OF RAEFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAS LICATED ON
CAMP MACKALL, DRIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN PINES.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...RAEFORD...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...HOFFMAN...
WHISPERING PINES...PINEBLUFF...WAGRAM...
SANDHILLS GAME LAND AND BOWMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE
SAFE SHELTER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7933 3505 7961 3528 7942 3509 7901
      3495 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 238DEG 10KT 3493 7941

WSS