Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low level frontal zone will remain quasi-stationary over NC,
while a series of upper level disturbances pass overhead, through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

Scattered convection has erupted over sections of the southern
piedmont and sandhills early this afternoon. Outflows will propagate
from these storms, initiating additional convective activity across
the remainder of the piedmont and into the coastal plain, especially
along the I-40 corridor. Convection also appears to be supported by
a nwd drifting shear axis. On current track, this feature should lie
across the northern piedmont by this evening. Thus, plan to carry
sold chance/low end likely PoPs late this afternoon-early this
evening across most of the region.

Expect the bulk of the convection to dissipate with loss of heating,
though presence of the shear axis and a tropical-like air mass will
support the potential for a few showers/storms into the overnight
hours. Min temps 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

With little change in atmospheric conditions, expect comparable
scenario Tuesday. The only differences being that convection may
initially fire over the northern counties, closer to the the stalled
mid level shear axis. While the atmosphere will be slight-moderately
unstable, weak shear will limit severe potential. May see more of a
heavy rain threat as winds aloft light, leading to slow moving
convection.

Similar to today, high temps Tuesday dependent upon when convection
fires. Expect more cloudiness north versus south so the southern
counties should reach 90-lower 90s. high temps north mainly in the
mid-upper 80s.

Scattered convection should dissipate Tuesday evening, leaving
warm/muggy conditions in its wake. Min temps low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

The long term pattern will feature a sub-tropical ridge that
persists across the Southeast through the end of the work week. The
upper-air flow across the Carolinas will be rather weak from the
west with the main westerlies confined to the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic. After a weakening surface boundary lifts northeast on
Wednesday, the main focus for convection with be associated with the
development of a Piedmont trough and localized convergence
associated with the higher terrain of the mountains and the sea
breeze. Convective coverage should be greatest on Wednesday,
especially to the northeast of Raleigh with an a minimum in coverage
on Thursday and only slightly better coverage on Friday. 500 hPa
heights increase a bit early in the period as ridging develops
across the southeast. With increasing heights, highs around 90 on
Wednesday warm to to the lower to mid 90s on thursday and Friday as
12Z low level thickness values range around 1335m. Note that the
hottest ECMWF ensemble member at FAY for Thursday gives a high of
100 with the operational giving a high of 98 and the ensemble
mean 96. Morning lows will range in the lower to middle 70s.

As the upper ridge shifts west into the Southern Plains over the
weekend into Monday, troughing develops across the eastern Great
Lakes and the Mid Atlantic. The associated cold front approaches the
southern Appalachians late Friday and then stalls across the
Virginias. Given the placement of the upper trough and the proximity
of the surface front, precipitation chances increase over the
weekend into early next week with temperatures cooling off a bit to
near to slightly above seasonal values. -blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

VFR conditions expected to prevail across central NC through mid day
Tuesday. The exception will be MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in
vicinity of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early this
evening, and pockets of IFR/LIFR conditions early Tuesday morning
where low clouds and fog develop. In addition, wind gusts 30-40kts
will occur in vicinity of the stronger storms.

A typical summer time pattern will prevail across central NC through
the work week. This suggest a threat for sub-VFR conditions due to
scattered afternoon and evening convection, and a brief period of
early morning fog and low clouds.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-121030-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
616 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-121030-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
616 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW LAUREL HILL        34.84N 79.58W
07/11/2016                   SCOTLAND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON PEELE CHAPEL ROAD.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
452 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N LAUREL HILL         34.91N 79.54W
07/11/2016                   SCOTLAND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUPLE TREES DOWN IN VICINITY OF MARSTON
            ROAD AND GUM SWAMP LAKE ROAD.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
458 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ089-112200-
SAMPSON   NC-
458 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF BLADEN COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN SAMPSON
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AMMON...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN... MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRELLS...GARLAND AND IVANHOE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3458 7826 3461 7831 3467 7832 3470 7837
      3475 7839 3478 7843 3483 7846 3484 7849
      3488 7851 3489 7854 3491 7854 3492 7815
      3474 7820 3471 7813 3472 7811 3470 7812
      3468 7816 3455 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 275DEG 14KT 3473 7841

BLAES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

NCZ088-089-112200-
CUMBERLAND   NC-SAMPSON   NC-
500 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUMBERLAND
AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...ROSEBORO...SALEMBURG...TURKEY...FALCON...AUTRYVILLE...
HOBBTON AND BUSHY LAKE NATURAL AREA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3489 7863 3521 7866 3521 7817 3513 7816
      3509 7817 3508 7816 3490 7815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 268DEG 26KT 3500 7846

BLAES