Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Central North Carolina will maintain its position on the southern
fringe of the westerlies in broad cyclonic flow aloft through
Thursday. A shortwave ridge will temporarily build over the region
Friday into Friday night, however, cyclonic flow aloft will
return over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 255 pm Tuesday...

...A heat advisory remains in effect this afternoon across eastern
portions of the Sandhills and southern coastal plain counties...

A weak-low amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the lower TN
Valley will move slowly eastward into the Southern Appalachians by
late tonight.  Meanwhile, Bermuda High Pressure is strongly seated
over the Southeast Coast, as a lee-side surface trough resides over
the Piedmont of the Carolinas.

Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s, combined with muggy dewpoints air
in the mid 70s, are supporting heat indices of 105 to 108 F across
eastern Sandhills and southern coastal plain counties. Will allow heat
advisory to expire at 7 pm.

With the approach of the weak upper trough from the west late in the
day, the better upper forcing is expected to remain north/west of
central NC this afternoon, though DPVA will increase over the N/NW
Piedmont later this evening into tonight. Strong surface heating
within a moisture-laden airmass (PWATS 1.8-2.1") should support
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/KG, with the least destabilization expected
across the W/NW Piedmont, on the western periphery of a lee surface
trough where dewpoints will be lowest.

With the above in mind, expect scattered convection to develop
across western portions of the state and move/spread east
throughout the afternoon and early evening, diminishing
overnight as BL cools and stabilizes.

With respect to severe threat, strong DCAPE (1000-1300 J/kg),
heighten by the presence of mid-level dry air suggest an enhanced
downburst/damaging wind/ threat with any deep convection that
develops this afternoon/early this evening.

Once convective clouds dissipate, skies are expected to clear out.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday night/...
As of 255 pm Tuesday...

The aforementioned weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough over the
Southern Appalachians will drift slowly eastward into the area on
Wednesday. Associated mid/upper cloud cover and resultant earlier
convective initiation should keep highs Wednesday a few degrees shy
of todays temperatures, but still in the general ballpark of low to
mid 90s. The more significant change will be with sfc dewpoints,
with models showing dewpoints falling/mixing out into the mid/upper
60s to lower 70s, which should keep heat indices below advisory
criteria.

As previously alluded to, DPVA coincident with daytime heating will
support scattered shower and storms, as early as mid to late morning
in the west, moving eastward by the early afternoon. This is likely
the primary reason why models indicate less destabilization than
recent days, with MLCAPE of only 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Additionally,
mid-level flows is significantly less (15-20kts)than recent days. So
severe threat will be isolated at best.

Mild overnight lows once again in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

A lingering trough will still be over the region on Thursday. Weak
low-level moisture convergence invof of this feature combined with
strong afternoon insolation within a moist airmass will support
isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon and evening
hours. Temps will remain in the low to mid 90s range, with overnight
lows in the mid 70s.

For Friday and into the early part of the weekend, a broad ridge to
our south will expand slightly to the north and east towards our
region. This will act to increase our temps and also decrease our
convective coverage as a cap develops. The warmest days are expected
to be Friday and Saturday when highs should range from the mid 90s
across the north to near 100 degrees across the south. These temps,
combined with a persistent moist airmass may result in heat advisory
criteria across southern and central portions of the forecast area.

Then a front is expected to approach the area for the latter half of
the weekend as a shortwave trough moves through New England/SE
Canada. Models are in general agreement that the front will push
through the area, but given the time of year, this will have to be
monitored as it may end up stalling somewhere over the region
through early next week. Regardless, temps should fall slightly, but
likely remain in the 90s. In addition, precip chances should
increase (closer to climo) as disturbances may track close to the
region along the stalled front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 140 pm Tuesday...

24-hr TAF Period: Sub-VFR conditions assoc/w scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals from mid/late
afternoon through midnight tonight. Latest convection allowing
models suggest greatest coverage across the northern tier, thus
will include a tempo for thunder at all TAF sites except FAY.
Once the convection diminishes with loss of heating, expect
predominately VFR conditions overnight with some patchy sub-VFR
fog possible in areas that received heavy rain.

Sub-VFR conditions associated with scattered showers and storms are
expected again on Wednesday.

Long Term: Afternoon/evening convection and patchy early morning fog
will remain possible Wed/Thu in association with a relatively active
summer pattern of broad cyclonic flow aloft. VFR conditions appear
likely Fri/Fri night as a shortwave ridge builds over the region,
however, cyclonic flow aloft will return for the weekend and chances
for convection will increase once again as an attendant cold front
approaches from the NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW LUCAMA             35.67N 78.04W
07/05/2016                   WILSON             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN.

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE     35.76N 79.68W
07/05/2016                   RANDOLPH           NC   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN FRANKLINVILLE.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

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