Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Central North Carolina will maintain its position on the southern
fringe of the westerlies in broad cyclonic flow aloft through
Thursday. A shortwave ridge will temporarily build over the region
Friday into Friday night, however, cyclonic flow aloft will
return over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 255 pm Tuesday...

...A heat advisory remains in effect this afternoon across eastern
portions of the Sandhills and southern coastal plain counties...

A weak-low amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the lower TN
Valley will move slowly eastward into the Southern Appalachians by
late tonight.  Meanwhile, Bermuda High Pressure is strongly seated
over the Southeast Coast, as a lee-side surface trough resides over
the Piedmont of the Carolinas.

Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s, combined with muggy dewpoints air
in the mid 70s, are supporting heat indices of 105 to 108 F across
eastern Sandhills and southern coastal plain counties. Will allow heat
advisory to expire at 7 pm.

With the approach of the weak upper trough from the west late in the
day, the better upper forcing is expected to remain north/west of
central NC this afternoon, though DPVA will increase over the N/NW
Piedmont later this evening into tonight. Strong surface heating
within a moisture-laden airmass (PWATS 1.8-2.1") should support
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/KG, with the least destabilization expected
across the W/NW Piedmont, on the western periphery of a lee surface
trough where dewpoints will be lowest.

With the above in mind, expect scattered convection to develop
across western portions of the state and move/spread east
throughout the afternoon and early evening, diminishing
overnight as BL cools and stabilizes.

With respect to severe threat, strong DCAPE (1000-1300 J/kg),
heighten by the presence of mid-level dry air suggest an enhanced
downburst/damaging wind/ threat with any deep convection that
develops this afternoon/early this evening.

Once convective clouds dissipate, skies are expected to clear out.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday night/...
As of 255 pm Tuesday...

The aforementioned weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough over the
Southern Appalachians will drift slowly eastward into the area on
Wednesday. Associated mid/upper cloud cover and resultant earlier
convective initiation should keep highs Wednesday a few degrees shy
of todays temperatures, but still in the general ballpark of low to
mid 90s. The more significant change will be with sfc dewpoints,
with models showing dewpoints falling/mixing out into the mid/upper
60s to lower 70s, which should keep heat indices below advisory
criteria.

As previously alluded to, DPVA coincident with daytime heating will
support scattered shower and storms, as early as mid to late morning
in the west, moving eastward by the early afternoon. This is likely
the primary reason why models indicate less destabilization than
recent days, with MLCAPE of only 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Additionally,
mid-level flows is significantly less (15-20kts)than recent days. So
severe threat will be isolated at best.

Mild overnight lows once again in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

A lingering trough will still be over the region on Thursday. Weak
low-level moisture convergence invof of this feature combined with
strong afternoon insolation within a moist airmass will support
isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon and evening
hours. Temps will remain in the low to mid 90s range, with overnight
lows in the mid 70s.

For Friday and into the early part of the weekend, a broad ridge to
our south will expand slightly to the north and east towards our
region. This will act to increase our temps and also decrease our
convective coverage as a cap develops. The warmest days are expected
to be Friday and Saturday when highs should range from the mid 90s
across the north to near 100 degrees across the south. These temps,
combined with a persistent moist airmass may result in heat advisory
criteria across southern and central portions of the forecast area.

Then a front is expected to approach the area for the latter half of
the weekend as a shortwave trough moves through New England/SE
Canada. Models are in general agreement that the front will push
through the area, but given the time of year, this will have to be
monitored as it may end up stalling somewhere over the region
through early next week. Regardless, temps should fall slightly, but
likely remain in the 90s. In addition, precip chances should
increase (closer to climo) as disturbances may track close to the
region along the stalled front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 140 pm Tuesday...

24-hr TAF Period: Sub-VFR conditions assoc/w scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals from mid/late
afternoon through midnight tonight. Latest convection allowing
models suggest greatest coverage across the northern tier, thus
will include a tempo for thunder at all TAF sites except FAY.
Once the convection diminishes with loss of heating, expect
predominately VFR conditions overnight with some patchy sub-VFR
fog possible in areas that received heavy rain.

Sub-VFR conditions associated with scattered showers and storms are
expected again on Wednesday.

Long Term: Afternoon/evening convection and patchy early morning fog
will remain possible Wed/Thu in association with a relatively active
summer pattern of broad cyclonic flow aloft. VFR conditions appear
likely Fri/Fri night as a shortwave ridge builds over the region,
however, cyclonic flow aloft will return for the weekend and chances
for convection will increase once again as an attendant cold front
approaches from the NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-084-062100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ078-085-086-088-089-062100-
WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
442 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ011-052145-
HALIFAX   NC-
442 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HALIFAX
COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 441 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF LITTLETON...OR 16 MILES WEST OF HALIFAX...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HALIFAX...ENFIELD...AIRLIE...TILLERY AND MEDOC MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 7739 3615 7752 3623 7797 3626 7797
      3630 7794 3638 7791 3636 7757 3634 7759
      3630 7755 3631 7750 3632 7747 3632 7744
      3629 7741 3626 7741 3624 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 277DEG 19KT 3629 7788

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
515 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DENTON                  35.63N 80.11W
07/05/2016                   DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 109. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
517 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DENTON                  35.63N 80.11W
07/05/2016                   DAVIDSON           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 109. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
530 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ASHEBORO            35.75N 79.81W
07/05/2016                   RANDOLPH           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN.

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
531 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W ASHEBORO            35.72N 79.87W
07/05/2016                   RANDOLPH           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN.

&&

SC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
541 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ040-041-052245-
WAKE   NC-CHATHAM   NC-
541 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN WAKE
AND NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PITTSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WAKE COUNTY...FROM
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK TO RALEIGH TO NEAR ROLESVILLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...CARY...PITTSBORO...RDU INTERNATIONAL...APEX...
HOLLY SPRINGS...MORRISVILLE...JORDAN LAKE STATE REC AREA...
CROSSWINDS BOATING CENTER AND JORDAN LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3589 7869 3577 7869 3562 7880 3568 7916
      3586 7916 3587 7883 3589 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 268DEG 17KT 3577 7911

26