Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Raleigh, NC

998 
WWUS52 KRAH 241754 RRA
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1254 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NCC163-241803-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160224T1830Z/
SAMPSON NC-
1254 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SAMPSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3470 7820 3486 7829 3494 7815 3490 7815
      3474 7820 3472 7815 3471 7814
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 217DEG 62KT 3499 7808 

$$

BLAES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TONIGHT AND THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...

...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST LINE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YADKIN RIVER
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WILL REACH THE TRIAD BETWEEN 1 AND 2
PM...AND INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA 3-4 PM. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS ARE
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WEDGE HAS ERODED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SETTING TABLE FOR SOME
MODEST DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN
ON THE UPTICK DUE TO THE MIXING...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. SOME MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT TIMING OF
THESE TRENDS ARE IN ORDER...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK
PER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF
COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT
850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A
STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL
WARM FRONTS.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD
THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED
SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR
THE COAST.  THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM.
MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS
INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT
FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED
ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL
AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY
THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.  THE TIME FRAME
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM.  THE HRRR HAS REALLY
LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS.

SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS
AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION)
...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40-
45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 7PM OR SO...WITH
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT.  LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 41-48 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD
MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS
WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO
65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH WITH MILD RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EAST COAST UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...

MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIAL COLD AIR
WEDGE HAS ERODED AND AN INTITIAL LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST...INTO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
(GSO/INT) BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. EASTERN SITES MAY EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN LINE REACHING THE
SITES 19-22Z. GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS COULD REACH 50 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO.

MEANWHILE...THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WILL FEATURE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. AFTER THE CONVECTION
WANES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING 20 TO 25
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS THURSDAY REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z
TOMORROW EVENING (BEYOND THE VALID TAF PERIOD).

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
 EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/MLM
NEAR TERM...22/MLM
SHORT TERM...26/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1127 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-251630-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
1127 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 26 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG...BLUSTERY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-251630-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1127 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 26 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG...BLUSTERY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
927 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROCKINGHAM APT          34.89N  79.76W
02/24/2016  M37 MPH          RICHMOND           NC   AWOS

            KRCZ REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 37 MPH AT 915 AM EST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600390

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
947 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROCKINGHAM APT          34.89N  79.76W
02/24/2016  M39 MPH          RICHMOND           NC   AWOS

            KRCZ REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 39 MPH AT 935 AM EST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600391

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MACKALL ARMY AIRFIELD   35.04N  79.50W
02/24/2016  M39 MPH          RICHMOND           NC   AWOS

            KHFF REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 39 MPH AT 920 AM EST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600392

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1125 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     9 SSE HOPE MILLS        34.84N  78.90W
02/24/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROTATING FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED IN HEAVY RAIN IN
            SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY NEAR THE BLADEN COUNTY
            LINE. LOCATION IS APPROXIMATE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600393

BLAES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1208 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NCZ042-043-078-241800-
JOHNSTON NC-WILSON NC-WAYNE NC-
1208 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
JOHNSTON...WILSON AND CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EST...

AT 1208 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...WILSON...ELM CITY...FREMONT...MICRO...PINE LEVEL...
KENLY...PRINCETON...LUCAMA AND STANTONSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH
CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3547 7783 3522 7824 3541 7842
      3586 7782 3584 7776 3582 7775 3573 7772
      3568 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 227DEG 34KT 3538 7825

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1226 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NCZ078-089-241830-
WAYNE NC-SAMPSON NC-
1226 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE
AND SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EST...

AT 1226 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF LAGOON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.

WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...CLINTON...MOUNT OLIVE...WALNUT CREEK...HARRELLS...
ROSEBORO...GARLAND...SALEMBURG...TURKEY AND SEVEN SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3461 7831 3467 7832 3470 7837 3476 7840
      3495 7860 3547 7783 3539 7780 3534 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3519 7802 3518 7807
      3519 7816 3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7813
      3472 7811 3471 7811 3455 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 218DEG 70KT 3466 7848

BLAES