Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Raleigh, NC

261 
WWUS52 KRAH 242016
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
316 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NCC001-037-081-151-242045-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160224T2045Z/
CHATHAM NC-GUILFORD NC-ALAMANCE NC-RANDOLPH NC-
316 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EST
FOR WESTERN CHATHAM...EASTERN GUILFORD...ALAMANCE AND EASTERN
RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

AT 313 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
ALTAMAHAW TO ALAMANCE TO COLERIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...SILER CITY...NORTH CAROLINA ZOO...MEBANE...
GOLDSTON...SEAGROVE...MCLEANSVILLE...ELON COLLEGE AND GIBSONVILLE.

NOT ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER. INSTEAD...CONCENTRATED SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY
AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A
BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE ARE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
THESE STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER... INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS... AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A
BATHROOM OR CLOSET.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3553 7927 3554 7928 3556 7928 3555 7929
      3556 7929 3552 7935 3551 7980 3625 7966
      3624 7926 3591 7926 3587 7924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 221DEG 49KT 3621 7949 3593 7954 3565 7959 

$$

26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TONIGHT AND THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...

...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST LINE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YADKIN RIVER
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WILL REACH THE TRIAD BETWEEN 1 AND 2
PM...AND INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA 3-4 PM. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS ARE
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WEDGE HAS ERODED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SETTING TABLE FOR SOME
MODEST DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN
ON THE UPTICK DUE TO THE MIXING...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. SOME MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT TIMING OF
THESE TRENDS ARE IN ORDER...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK
PER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF
COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT
850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A
STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL
WARM FRONTS.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD
THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED
SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR
THE COAST.  THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM.
MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS
INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT
FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED
ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL
AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY
THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.  THE TIME FRAME
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM.  THE HRRR HAS REALLY
LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS.

SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS
AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION)
...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40-
45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 7PM OR SO...WITH
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT.  LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 41-48 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD
MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS
WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO
65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH WITH MILD RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EAST COAST UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...

MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIAL COLD AIR
WEDGE HAS ERODED AND AN INTITIAL LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST...INTO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
(GSO/INT) BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. EASTERN SITES MAY EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN LINE REACHING THE
SITES 19-22Z. GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS COULD REACH 50 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO.

MEANWHILE...THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WILL FEATURE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. AFTER THE CONVECTION
WANES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING 20 TO 25
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS THURSDAY REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z
TOMORROW EVENING (BEYOND THE VALID TAF PERIOD).

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
 EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/MLM
NEAR TERM...22/MLM
SHORT TERM...26/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1127 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-251630-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
1127 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 26 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG...BLUSTERY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-251630-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1127 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 26 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG...BLUSTERY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND GST     PIEDMONT TRIAD APT      36.10N  79.94W
02/24/2016  M46 MPH          GUILFORD           NC   ASOS

            KGSO REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 46 MPH IN A
            THUNDERSTORM AT 150 PM EST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600399

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MACKALL ARMY AIRFIELD   35.04N  79.50W
02/24/2016  M44 MPH          RICHMOND           NC   AWOS

            KHFF REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 44 MPH AT 156 PM EST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600400

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
209 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LAURINBURG MAXTON APT   34.79N  79.37W
02/24/2016  M39 MPH          SCOTLAND           NC   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600401

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
226 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S GREENSBORO          36.07N  79.83W
02/24/2016                   GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN AT S ELAM AVE AND SHERWOOD AV. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600402

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
228 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE PIEDMONT TRIAD AI 36.05N  79.90W
02/24/2016                   GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN SOUTHWEST GREENSBORO. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600404

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
243 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W SEVEN SPRINGS       35.22N  77.91W
02/24/2016                   WAYNE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TURKEY HOUSE AND SHED DESTROYED ON SANDERSON RD IN
            SEVEN SPRINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600405

KC