Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016

...Updated zones/grids to include Baca...Bent...Crowley
...Huerfano...Kiowa...Las Animas...Otero...Prowers and
Pueblo counties in a severe thunderstorm watch until 8
PM MDT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016

...Active evening then quieter Saturday...

Shortwave will move onto the plains and interact with deep surface
moisture next several hours. Likely to see increased convection
over the Palmer Divide...organizing and tracking southeast across
the plains through the evening. Also...more discrete convection
likely elsewhere along and east of the mountains. Primary threats
will include large hail to golf ball size...winds around 70
mph...heavy rain...flooding and lightning with a small chance of
an isolated tornado.

Warmer and drier Saturday with much more isolated activity.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
thinking with primary longer term issues being temperatures,
pops, the potential for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
at times into Saturday evening and then again by next Thursday as
well as elevated fire weather concerns at times.

Latest longer range forecast model soundings. PV analysis and
computer simulations indicate that upper disturbances will
continue to interact with adequate atmospheric moisture into
Saturday night...capable of producing isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms...strong to possibly severe at times as
projected Saturday evening localized capes, LI's and deep layer
shear values challenge 2000 J/KG...-6C and 45 knots at times.
WFO Pueblo will continue to monitor closely.

It still appears that a return to generally drier conditions
should be experienced across the forecast district from Sunday
into at least mid-week thanks to drier southwesterly to zonal
upper flow. In addition, it still appears that the highest
potential for elevated fire weather concerns should be noted from
Sunday into Tuesday, with Monday expected to have the highest
potential of more widespread near critical to critical fire
weather conditions at times. Then a return to more unsettled
conditions is projected by next Thursday and Friday as next
system impacts the forecast district.

Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures should continue to run
near or above early July climatological averages during the
longer term in combination with gusty gradient winds from later
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Forecast remains on track. Another round of evening storms expected
across the flight area, primarily affecting the Palmer Divide
region, eastern mountains and plains. Main threats are large hail,
strong winds, heavy rain, lightning. Most activity should be east of
flight area after midnight. Tomorrow is showing warming and drying
with much more isolated activity than today. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
conditions possible in storms. KCOS...KPUB and KALS sites could all
see storms generally 20Z-02z.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-091800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1146 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
TODAY. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 1 PM...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND LIGHTNING. THERE
IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

50/50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 E MONUMENT            39.10N 104.81W
07/08/2016  M0.88 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

RMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
449 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             3 ESE MONUMENT          39.08N 104.82W
07/08/2016  E0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            .

&&

RMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 N FALCON              38.97N 104.62W
07/08/2016  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HAIL EVENT WAS 10
            MINUTES.

&&

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
457 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE SECURITY           38.74N 104.72W
07/08/2016                   EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RUNOFF IS FLOWING OVER THE CURB AND IS
            IMPACTING TRAFFIC FLOW. .

&&

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
505 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             6 SE PEYTON             38.95N 104.41W
07/08/2016  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            .

&&

AL

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