Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Pueblo, CO

658 
WWUS55 KPUB 081005
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COC041-081030-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-160708T1030Z/
EL PASO CO-
405 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY...

AT 405 AM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOUNTAIN...OR
15 MILES SOUTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOUNTAIN AND SECURITY-WIDEFIELD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 10482 3869 10480 3879 10455 3863 10459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1005Z 342DEG 15KT 3862 10476 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

KT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1145 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Combination of low level easterly flow wrapping around northern
side of the surface low is advecting moisture into the pikes peak
region has been regenerating severe thunderstorms across the area
through midnight. This has raised concerns for a flash flood
threat over the area until 3 am. After that time...low level
easterlies shift to the south as the surface low shifts eastward
into the TX panhandle. Thus...expect severe thunderstorm/localized
flash flood threat to linger past midnight for parts of the area.
-KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

...A few storms today...slight risk for tomorrow...

Models develop a bit of convection this evening.  Boundary across
the plains trying to back in from the northeast against southwest
breezes off the mountains.  Boundary is struggling to make progress
currently but should accelerate tonight.  Ridge runner storm along
the Raton Ridge...east of Trinidad is one to watch.  It make
interact with the southwestward-moving boundary over Baca County
later and beef up to the strong or severe range.  Also, will have to
monitor any other convection developing along or behind the boundary
across the plains this evening.  Low level moisture is definitely
better behind the boundary...50s behind versus 30s ahead. Probably
some low clouds moving in over the plains late tonight into early
Friday.

Tomorrow has potential for severe weather.  Models have been flip
flopping a bit on whether or not the cap will break across the
plains.  With low level, moist upslope flow in place across the
plains, CAPES are looking high.  Convection should manage to get
going over the plains and ridges during the afternoon, no problem.
Question is how will it hold together across the plains.  12Z run
of the NAM12 had convection firing over the Palmer during afternoon
and then tracking southeast across the plains during the evening
as a growing MCS.  18Z run has done away with the MCS part.  GFS
has an MCS tracking southeast across northeast Colorado in the
afternoon, clipping Kiowa and Prowers Counties in the evening.
Many questions on specifics yet, but lots of potential.  Will
have to pound out the specifics later.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Longer term meteorological concerns include temperatures, pops, the
potential for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms at times as
well as elevated fire weather concerns at times.

Recent longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that upper disturbances will
interact with increased atmospheric moisture from later Friday
into Saturday night...capable of producing isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms...strong to possibly severe at times as
projected localized capes, LI's and deep layer shear values
challenge 3000 J/KG...-8C and 45 knots during this time-frame. As
always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

Then a return to somewhat drier conditions are anticipated from
Sunday into at least mid-week as drier southwesterly to zonal
upper flow returns to the forecast district. At this time...it
appears that the highest potential for elevated fire weather
concerns should be noted from Sunday into Tuesday, with Monday
have the highest potential of more widespread near critical to
critical fire weather conditions.

Overall, maximum and minimum temperatures should run at/or above
early July climatological averages during the longer term in
combination with generally low-grade gradients winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT
AND WILL SEND REINFORCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR TO LOCAL IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 09Z. THIS
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BREAKING. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BECOMING SEVERE. WILL CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-22 KTS.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-090530-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1129 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND 60 MPH
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PERSIST
UNTIL 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MANY LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE...WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN
STORM THREATS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS STORMS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE WEAKER...WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE.

FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

31/31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     HAIL             2 WSW PETERSON AFB      38.82N 104.73W
07/07/2016  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   AMATEUR RADIO

            .

&&

NWS PUEBLO CO
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     HAIL             3 N SECURITY            38.79N 104.73W
07/07/2016  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            .

&&

NWS PUEBLO CO
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     HAIL             2 WSW PETERSON AFB      38.81N 104.73W
07/07/2016  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS PUEBLO CO
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
230 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COZ084-085-080915-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
230 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 315
AM MDT...

AT 230 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SECURITY...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN COLORADO SPRINGS...FOUNTAIN...SECURITY...FALCON...
FORT CARSON...CIMARRON HILLS...SECURITY-WIDEFIELD...
STRATMOOR AND PETERSON AFB.

LAT...LON 3864 10482 3881 10485 3895 10463 3868 10444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 261DEG 14KT 3874 10475

EP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COZ085-086-080930-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
250 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO AND NORTH
CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM MDT...

AT 250 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PINON...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF PUEBLO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN PUEBLO...FOUNTAIN...PINON...PUEBLO WEST AND HANOVER.

LAT...LON 3835 10477 3859 10471 3859 10440 3830 10444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 261DEG 16KT 3843 10459

EP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 AM     HAIL             1 SE SECURITY           38.74N 104.72W
07/08/2016  M1.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS PUEBLO CO
IRIS SYSTEM