Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Paducah, KY

121 
WWUS53 KPAH 101808
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

INC147-KYC059-101830-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-160510T1830Z/
SPENCER IN-DAVIESS KY-
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SPENCER AND DAVIESS COUNTIES...

AT 106 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KNOTTSVILLE...OR NEAR ROCKPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THERE
HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS IN AND AROUND OWENSBORO OF 1 TO 2 INCH
HAIL.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWENSBORO...ROCKPORT...WHITESVILLE...MASONVILLE...KNOTTSVILLE...LEWISPORT
AND MOSELEYVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 8723 3775 8730 3778 8727 3779 8730
      3780 8729 3792 8698 3790 8699 3790 8695
      3794 8691 3791 8693 3788 8689 3787 8691
      3784 8691 3783 8689 3784 8686 3779 8682
      3774 8682 3771 8686 3767 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 246DEG 46KT 3780 8699 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1249 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

Latest radar trends indicate that storms are increasing in
intensity as they enter Daviess and McLean counties. Would expect
the intensification to continue as this activity pushes east of
the area. We will have to watch the Pennyrile region of Kentucky
to the south of the current area for new development, but there
just hasn't been alot of heating there or anywhere for that
matter.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016

Quite convoluted series of MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems)
moving through the WFO PAH forecast area during the next 72 hours.

Although a decent low level jet exists across the eastern Purchase
area of West Kentucky at this time, the boundary layer has been
stabilized from previous convection, disconnecting any downward
flux of strong winds, but support effective rainfall rates with
the elevated convection. At this time, will hold off any
consideration of a flash flood watch, but it may need to be
considered for parts of Southeast Missouri...extreme Southern
Illinois and the northern Pennyrile later today, should the next
MCS travel eastward slower than expected.

The MCS evolving over Southwest Missouri is forecast by the NAM-
WRF ARW, as well as the GFS and ECMWF guidance to grow-up scale
and move eastward later toward sunrise, filling the extreme
western areas of Southeast Missouri and extending east into
Southern Illinois between 7 am and 1 pm today. The HRRR model
families are seeming to initialize this system too far north,
keying in on the forcing and warm air advection over eastern
Illinois, south through the Kentucky Pennyrile. It appears that
another warm frontal zone is trying to set up behind the
convective activity currently sprawled the WFO PAH forecast area.
This gives a little more confidence and credence to renewed
convection this morning over Southeast Missouri. This also may
delay and renewed severe potential until this afternoon over parts
of Southwest Indiana, the northern Pennyrile, and extreme
Southeast Illinois, and the adjacent counties of the Purchase Area
of West Kentucky. By later tonight, the more persistent convection
should remain in the eastern Pennyrile and Southwest Indiana
counties.

It looks like severe potential will diminish on Wednesday and the
next shortwave of energy move from Upper Midwest into the Central
Plains and approaches ridging aloft. This will also reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day. The ridging
aloft will be dampened Late Wednesday night as an approaching cold
front and renewed warm front generation place the WFO PAH forecast
area in a very unstable warm sector. It is likely that this will
afford increased severe potential for the day 2 severe outlook
area. Thursday afternoon will likely see another round of severe
storms as the cold front finally, but slowly works through the
area with channel vorticity along and ahead of the main trough
axis. This axis should sweep through the area Thursday night
drying out the WFO PAH forecast area for the beginning of the
extended forecast period.

With the clouds, rain, and nearby mesoscale and convective
boundaries, went with a cooler and smaller diurnal range of
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 412 am CDT Tue May 10 2016

The period will begin drier and cooler as a bubble high pressure
system moves southeast across the area on Friday. However,
another cold front will sweep quickly across the region Friday
night. This front is expected to be weakening as it approaches,
and right now the main chcs for precip will be north of the Ohio
River. Not expecting any big impacts with this front though.

High pressure will then settle back in for the first part of the
weekend . Despite a return to sunshine Saturday, most locations will
should stay in the mid and upper 60s most of the afternoon.  For the
latter half of the weekend, a warm frontal zone is progged to set up
south of the PAH forecast area, between high surface pressure to the
north and low surface pressure developing in the southern Plains.
Though the smaller details of the deterministic models are more
murky at this time frame, it appears that shower and tstm chances
will be ramping up once again, esp as we head into the Sunday
night/Monday time frame. Will leave thunder mention out until the
warm front gets closer to the region on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue May 10 2016

A cluster of storms will hit KOWB in the next hour, and once it
pushes east, all TAF sites should be dry for the remainder of the
forecast. MVFR ceilings will impact KCGI and KPAH for a few hours
this afternoon before lifting to VFR. It appears that MVFR
ceilings will be tied to convection at KOWB only. Clearing is
eventually expected along with light or calm winds tonight. There
is a strong signal for LIFR or lower ceiling development possibly
before 06Z depending on timing of the clearing. The low ceilings
and/or dense fog development seems like a good bet. The low
ceilings/fog should lift/dissipate by late morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE WEST KENTUCKY PENNYRILE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
HAZARD...BUT THERE WILL EXIST ENOUGH ELEVATED SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE IN THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAVE THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS
WITHIN CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE A SECONDARY HAZARD.

THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REPORTS
OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH WILL
BE APPRECIATED.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

INZ086-087-KYZ018-101700-
WARRICK IN-VANDERBURGH IN-HENDERSON KY-
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VANDERBURGH...WESTERN WARRICK AND
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1125 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EVANSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVANSVILLE...HENDERSON...BOONVILLE...NEWBURGH...CHANDLER...MELODY HILL...
DARMSTADT AND KASSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8726 3792 8727 3786 8773 3790 8771
      3790 8770 3793 8770 3808 8763 3821 8725
      3795 8723
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 252DEG 41KT 3800 8759

ML/DRS