Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

MCV moving across southern MO driving next batch of convection
slated to affect the area this afternoon and evening, mainly the
southern 1/3 to southern 1/2. Airmass very unstable over SEMO, and
destabilizing elsewhere with modest recovery behind this morning's
MCV. Will continue with higher PoPs south, lower north for
convection through the evening, with SVR possible SEMO into far
west KY (see latest SVR watch). Will lower PoPs from north to
south overnight. Will also allow the Flash Flood Watch to continue
with the chance of convection increasing through the evening.

For Saturday through Sunday...Best PoPs will be over the SSW 1/3
to 1/2 of the area. Generally followed a blend of the NAM and
ECMWF for best chance PoPs. Will use persistence for temps as
latest MOS and raw model output line up with existing numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

The frontal boundary that will linger to our south through the
weekend will lift northeast across the region Monday into Tuesday.
This will give us some diurnally driven convection Monday and
Tuesday, with a lull Monday night with the loss of heating.  By
Tuesday night, the front will be to our northeast, so just a few
showers and thunderstorms may linger in southwest Indiana.

Temperatures will rebound back to seasonal readings behind the
front, and dew points will creep back upward through mid week. This
will lead to heat indices climbing back to around 100 degrees by
Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Models differ quite a bit on timing of an approaching cold front mid
week.  GFS has an upper level trof moving across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday, and then has the cold front moving toward the region
faster than the ECMWF and Canadian.  In any case, with a hot and
muggy air mass in place across the region,  shower and thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase for mid to late week.  Kept
possibilities in the chance category through the end of the extended
due to timing uncertainties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Scattered shra/tstms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening, with brief MVFR conditions possible with tstm activity.
After mid evening, VFR conditions are expected.  Winds will be west
to northwest at 7 to 12 kts with a few higher gusts through 02z,
then become light.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ089-090-
     094.

MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for KYZ005>013-
     016-017-021-022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
416 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
416 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE FAR WESTERN TIP
OF KENTUCKY. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONTINUING DAILY STORM CHANCES EXIST. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED THIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
515 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NW POPLAR BLUFF       36.84N 90.50W
07/08/2016  M1.35 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN JUST OVER AN HOUR WITH ONE QUARTER INCH
            FALLING IN THE PAST 7 MINUTES.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
527 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E POPLAR BLUFF        36.76N 90.37W
07/08/2016  M1.59 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
533 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
07/08/2016                   BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN. WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WAS
            MEASURED AT 47 MPH.

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
535 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-090000-
PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-
STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRYVILLE...SILVER LAKE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
535 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

AT 535 PM...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG AND WEST OF
A NEW MADRID TO MARBLE HILL MISSOURI LINE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST.
WINDS TO 47 MPH WERE REPORTED AT POPLAR BLUFF MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
AND A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN IN THE POPLAR BLUFF AREA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER NORTHERN STODDARD COUNTY INTO WAYNE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE 40 TO 55 MPH WINDS.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT
MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MONITOR THIS SITUATION
THROUGH THE EVENING. LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
WARNINGS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     BARDWELL                36.87N 89.01W
07/08/2016  E60 MPH          CARLISLE           KY   PUBLIC

&&

SMITTY