Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

MCV moving across southern MO driving next batch of convection
slated to affect the area this afternoon and evening, mainly the
southern 1/3 to southern 1/2. Airmass very unstable over SEMO, and
destabilizing elsewhere with modest recovery behind this morning's
MCV. Will continue with higher PoPs south, lower north for
convection through the evening, with SVR possible SEMO into far
west KY (see latest SVR watch). Will lower PoPs from north to
south overnight. Will also allow the Flash Flood Watch to continue
with the chance of convection increasing through the evening.

For Saturday through Sunday...Best PoPs will be over the SSW 1/3
to 1/2 of the area. Generally followed a blend of the NAM and
ECMWF for best chance PoPs. Will use persistence for temps as
latest MOS and raw model output line up with existing numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

The frontal boundary that will linger to our south through the
weekend will lift northeast across the region Monday into Tuesday.
This will give us some diurnally driven convection Monday and
Tuesday, with a lull Monday night with the loss of heating.  By
Tuesday night, the front will be to our northeast, so just a few
showers and thunderstorms may linger in southwest Indiana.

Temperatures will rebound back to seasonal readings behind the
front, and dew points will creep back upward through mid week. This
will lead to heat indices climbing back to around 100 degrees by
Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Models differ quite a bit on timing of an approaching cold front mid
week.  GFS has an upper level trof moving across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday, and then has the cold front moving toward the region
faster than the ECMWF and Canadian.  In any case, with a hot and
muggy air mass in place across the region,  shower and thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase for mid to late week.  Kept
possibilities in the chance category through the end of the extended
due to timing uncertainties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Scattered shra/tstms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening, with brief MVFR conditions possible with tstm activity.
After mid evening, VFR conditions are expected.  Winds will be west
to northwest at 7 to 12 kts with a few higher gusts through 02z,
then become light.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ089-090-
     094.

MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for KYZ005>013-
     016-017-021-022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
359 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY, BOTH THIS
MORNING, AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS HARDEST HIT BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. REFER
TO THE WATCH FOR DETAILS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONTINUING DAILY STORM CHANCES EXIST. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED.