Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Another day Thursday of scattered convection and locally heavy
rainfall has kept grounds saturated, particularly over areas that
were/have been hardest hit, from far southern IL extending
into/across ptns WKY/Pennyrile. We'll therefore outlook this area
in an FFA again today, even though PoPs are scattered. We'll just
focus on the areas hardest hit with extreme rains, for the
headline. Maximum Unstable Capes of 4000-5000 J/KG and PWs again
near 2" just pound it home that another afternoon of similar type
convection, and potential flooding, is again in the offing.

Models take the MCS currently over cntl MO southeastward into our
area early this morning, fizzling a little on approach. Latest
SWOMCD documents this diminishing threat, and radar trends do show
the advance line of storms has lost its backward C punch and has
gone more linear. We'll keep a close eye out though, for any
isolated storm/wind gust potential.

As with MCS's from night's past, it'll lay out its boundaries in
the morning, and allow warm/soupy charged atmos to service upon
said boundaries for another round of heat of day convection later
during the pm. We'll collab blend with LMK and carry the FFA
headline thru the pm and into the evening, ending at 04Z. By
then/shortly thereafter, Pops reorient to the south and west,
according to good model agreement. That'll be where the potential
for tmrw night's MCS/activity could gen...so will have to monitor
daytime rains and see if extension or reissuance of FFA will be
called for as conditions warrant then.

Pops more or less then continue onward thru the remainder of the
short term forecast, with upper energy/wave between the High
Plains ridge aloft and the Upper Ohio Valley Cyclone. This
unsettled energy in the soupy/charged atmos in place offers just
enough disturbance to overturn and efficiently rain out the high
PWs in place, so more daily chances for the foreseeable future
continue forecast. The good news is all the convection, and
convective blow off elements, both from night time MCS activity
and daytime regeneration, should mute highs again today in the
80s, like the past two days... so no longer does a Heat Advisory,
as previously contemplated, appear necessary. And this trend
continues with 80s on thru the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

The long term pattern appears typical for mid-summer across our
region. The belt of upper-level westerlies will lie primarily across
the northern tier of states. A very warm and humid southwest low-
level flow will continue through the period. Convection will be an
ever-present threat in a seasonably warm and unstable air mass.

On Monday, the primary focusing mechanism for convection will be a
weak 500 mb shortwave detached from the band of stronger winds over
the northern states. The models vary with their timing of this
feature, but they are in good agreement it will track across the Mid-
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys early in the week. Will continue
with chance pops both Monday and Tuesday. Highs both days will be
near 90.

Wednesday should be the hottest and driest day of the week under a
weak 500 mb ridge. Pops will be mainly in the slight chance
category. Highs should be mainly in the lower 90s.

A 500 mb shortwave will traverse the northern tier of the country
later in the week. Convective chances will increase a bit Thursday
as the tail end of the shortwave crosses our region. Again, no real
departure from a typical summertime pattern is expected. Highs will
once again be near 90. Overnight lows through the period will be
mainly in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

VFR cigs incoming with MCS diving southeastward toward terminals
this morning. It appears increasingly likely vicinity
thunderstorms or CIG/VSBY restriction included mention will be
necessitated as it makes its approach this morning. It'll lay out
its boundaries, and serve to refocus convection chances again
during the heat of day as well. MVFR cigs may occur in both
instances, with thunderstorms potentially restricting both CIGS
and VSBYS to IFR at times, but we'll leave that out of categorical
mention at this writing.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ089-090-094.

MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ005>013-016-017-
     021-022.

&&

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