Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Converging MCS's across our region this afternoon will result in a
good chance of severe storms with damaging winds being the
primary threat, mainly over southeast Missouri, the southern tip
of Illinois and the Purchase Area of west Kentucky. The strongest
storms are likely to form near the intersection of the 2
boundaries, which will result in a quick east southeast or
southeast motion. Large hail will also be possible. The quick
storm motion should limit the heavy rainfall potential, although
there will be some relatively brief intense rainfall rates, which
may tax poorly draining areas.

Heat indices may climb above 100 ahead of the storms over
southeast Missouri and west Kentucky. North of the southward
moving boundary, it will be much cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

MCS will be developing/storms becoming more numerous in vicinity
of current activity from Ncntrl IL back into across srn IA/nrn MO
early this morning. It will be diving southeastward and its
remnants or outflows potentially will be flirting with our
northern CWA border by 12Z this morning.

Said outflows/boundaries should touch off scattered convection for
us this morning, particularly across the north and east, where
models track decaying system. Then, said outflows/boundaries
should reignite activity during the daytime heating ptn of the
day, and this may be across our central and southern counties.
We'll therefore carry and translate mid to high chance cat pops
across the area today. This includes SWODY1 slgt risk svr. across
mainly our northern half of the area, where the boundary should
settle and help stimulate/focus some more aggressive updrafts
"during the heat of the daytime", as the outlook states.

Another wave/associated convection makes a dive southward across
the area late Wed night-early Thursday, and its outflow/boundary
could also focus some daytime convection later Thursday. So a
similar scenario for Thursday, although upper heights are starting
to rise in our south/west, in response to the broader ridge aloft.

Our best chance for stronger storms/additional coverage comes
Friday pm/evening, when a front dives south out of the zonal
westerlies that make passage across the Great Lakes and nudge into
the Ohio valley. It'll break the ridge down a bit, and activate
diurnal convection along the boundary. With some dynamical energy,
these storms will have perhaps the best chance for damaging wind
gust potential, in addition to the heavy rain/lightning producers.

Heat Index will exceed 100 today, and may approach 105 briefly in
isolated locales. A slightly better chance of reaching or
exceeding 105 for the area occurs Thursday and Friday afternoons,
and thus will be monitored closely if it necessitates
headline/advisory posting.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Models show a frontal boundary meandering near or just south of the
PAH forecast area through the weekend into early next week.  GFS is
farther north and more robust with QPF amounts than the ECMWF,
and the Canadian implies more diurnally driven chances. Overall
this set up will keep the best shower and thunderstorm chances
focused across our southern half of counties Saturday through
Monday, with just slight chances for our northeast counties. Kept
probabilities in the chance category or lower for now until we see
a little better model agreement. Temperatures will be near
seasonal through this period with highs around 90 degrees and lows
around 70 degrees.

For Monday night into Tuesday, models show the front lifting
northeast across our region, which should give us a little more
uniform shower and thunderstorms chances.  Again, kept probabilities
in the chance category for now due to potential timing concerns and
fairly light QPF amounts. The front lifting north will also
result in slightly higher temperatures and dew points for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

A line of severe thunderstorms will impact KCGI shortly with
winds up to and possibly in excess of 50kts. The line will
similarly impact KPAH around 19Z. Winds fields will be from the
east or southeast for the remainder of the day behind the
convective activity. Confidence in the forecast beyond this
afternoon is low, so just kept the forecasts simple and VFR with
the exception of some MVFR fog at KCGI late tonight/early
Thursday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1117 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1117 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS HAS
JUST MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS
AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL...BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY
YIELD THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT MOST STORMS
EACH DAY WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING AS THEIR PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES OVER
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MAY AT TIMES
REACH OR EXCEED THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 105 FOR SOME LOCALES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE
PURCHASE AREA OF KENTUCKY...AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS.

DRS

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