Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

MCS will be developing/storms becoming more numerous in vicinity
of current activity from Ncntrl IL back into across srn IA/nrn MO
early this morning. It will be diving southeastward and its
remnants or outflows potentially will be flirting with our
northern CWA border by 12Z this morning.

Said outflows/boundaries should touch off scattered convection for
us this morning, particularly across the north and east, where
models track decaying system. Then, said outflows/boundaries
should reignite activity during the daytime heating ptn of the
day, and this may be across our central and southern counties.
We'll therefore carry and translate mid to high chance cat pops
across the area today. This includes SWODY1 slgt risk svr. across
mainly our northern half of the area, where the boundary should
settle and help stimulate/focus some more aggressive updrafts
"during the heat of the daytime", as the outlook states.

Another wave/associated convection makes a dive southward across
the area late Wed night-early Thursday, and its outflow/boundary
could also focus some daytime convection later Thursday. So a
similar scenario for Thursday, although upper heights are starting
to rise in our south/west, in response to the broader ridge aloft.

Our best chance for stronger storms/additional coverage comes
Friday pm/evening, when a front dives south out of the zonal
westerlies that make passage across the Great Lakes and nudge into
the Ohio valley. It'll break the ridge down a bit, and activate
diurnal convection along the boundary. With some dynamical energy,
these storms will have perhaps the best chance for damaging wind
gust potential, in addition to the heavy rain/lightning producers.

Heat Index will exceed 100 today, and may approach 105 briefly in
isolated locales. A slightly better chance of reaching or
exceeding 105 for the area occurs Thursday and Friday afternoons,
and thus will be monitored closely if it necessitates
headline/advisory posting.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Models show a frontal boundary meandering near or just south of the
PAH forecast area through the weekend into early next week.  GFS is
farther north and more robust with QPF amounts than the ECMWF,
and the Canadian implies more diurnally driven chances. Overall
this set up will keep the best shower and thunderstorm chances
focused across our southern half of counties Saturday through
Monday, with just slight chances for our northeast counties. Kept
probabilities in the chance category or lower for now until we see
a little better model agreement. Temperatures will be near
seasonal through this period with highs around 90 degrees and lows
around 70 degrees.

For Monday night into Tuesday, models show the front lifting
northeast across our region, which should give us a little more
uniform shower and thunderstorms chances.  Again, kept probabilities
in the chance category for now due to potential timing concerns and
fairly light QPF amounts. The front lifting north will also
result in slightly higher temperatures and dew points for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Patchy pre dawn fog may restrict vsbys on occasion, but should
burn off quickly after sunrise. Decaying late night MCS associated
convection will dive toward terminals early today, but will
bargain chip SCT-BKN MVFR bases and refrain from specific
convection mention at this writing, potentially adding vicinity
convection mention on the 12Z package.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
311 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INCLUDES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...WHILE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MOST COMMON
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.

THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY
YIELD THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT MOST STORMS
EACH DAY WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING AS THEIR PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES OVER
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MAY AT TIMES
REACH OR EXCEED THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 105 FOR SOME LOCALES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND POTENTIAL ACTIVATION
REQUESTS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1035 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

INZ082-085>088-KYZ018-019-061615-
WARRICK IN-SPENCER IN-VANDERBURGH IN-PIKE IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY-
DAVIESS KY-
1035 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SPENCER...VANDERBURGH...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE...WARRICK...EAST CENTRAL POSEY...NORTHEASTERN
HENDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT/1215 PM
EDT/...

AT 1034 AM CDT/1134 AM EDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MORGANTOWN TO NEAR COBB. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVANSVILLE...HENDERSON...BOONVILLE...NEWBURGH...CHANDLER...
MELODY HILL...SANTA CLAUS...DALE...DARMSTADT...LYNNVILLE...
GRANDVIEW...KASSON...EUREKA...FOLSOMVILLE...BLAIRSVILLE...
ELBERFELD...CHRISNEY...TENNYSON AND GENTRYVILLE.

LAT...LON 3800 8677 3801 8680 3799 8686 3794 8692
      3793 8698 3775 8751 3805 8781 3827 8707
      3820 8707 3820 8679 3812 8681 3810 8677
      3808 8678 3806 8677 3804 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 354DEG 359KT 3728 8677 3699 8766

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

INZ082-085>088-KYZ018-019-061615-
WARRICK IN-SPENCER IN-VANDERBURGH IN-PIKE IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY-
DAVIESS KY-
1038 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SPENCER...VANDERBURGH...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE...WARRICK...EAST CENTRAL POSEY...NORTHEASTERN
HENDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT/1215 PM
EDT/...

AT 1034 AM CDT/1134 AM EDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON INDIANA
TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINSLOW INDIANA. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVANSVILLE...HENDERSON...BOONVILLE...NEWBURGH...CHANDLER...
MELODY HILL...SANTA CLAUS...DALE...DARMSTADT...LYNNVILLE...
GRANDVIEW...KASSON...EUREKA...FOLSOMVILLE...BLAIRSVILLE...
ELBERFELD...CHRISNEY...TENNYSON AND GENTRYVILLE.

LAT...LON 3800 8677 3801 8680 3799 8686 3794 8692
      3793 8698 3775 8751 3805 8781 3827 8707
      3820 8707 3820 8679 3812 8681 3810 8677
      3808 8678 3806 8677 3804 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 354DEG 359KT 3728 8677 3699 8766

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1043 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

MOZ086-100-107>110-061630-
BOLLINGER-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARBLE HILL...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD
1043 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...STRONG STORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 1043 AM...STORMS WERE APPROACHING CARTER COUNTY MISSOURI.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME IS NOW EXPECTED AS SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. THROUGH NOON...BE ALERT AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ACROSS
CARTER...RIPLEY...WAYNE AND BUTLER COUNTIES.