Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
249 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is placed on continued
shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon and additional
development into the evening.

Earlier this morning, a noticable MCV had developed in response to
ongoing convection, near Altus, and has continued to provide focus
for sustaining convection into this afternoon across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Expect this activity to persist
through the afternoon into the evening. Overall, Theta-e advection
into the Texoma region continues, with decent MLCAPE values of 1000
to 2000 J/Kg. Shear is paltry, given the lack of strong mid-level
support outside the remnant MCV. However, given the last few days,
and given the MCV, no doubt, some isolated updrafts will make the
push to strong to severe. Hail threat will be near zero, but
downburst winds, to 60 mph, are the primary concern given boundary
layer dew point spreads. Other concerns will be frequent lightning
and brief heavy rainfall. Into the evening, short range guidance,
both traditional and CAMs, become bullish across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. The GFS's convective feedback is
poor, the most aggressive of guidance, with even the HRRR, NAM, and
ECMWF having their moments. However, still expect continued
development through the evening.

Overnight, increased precipitation chances across western Oklahoma
and western north Texas between 7pm and Midnight, as surface
convergence will increase slightly, with scattered showers/thunder
remaining possible through the overnight into early Tuesday.

Tuesday, will keep slight chance of showers/thunder through the day
as remnant activity from overnight may linger, especially with the
strengthening western trough and 500mb ridge continuing its slide
eastward. With increasing low to mid level flow from the
south/southeast, expect better boundary layer mixing across the
hottest areas, keeping dew points down just enough for heat indices
to only push into the 100 to 104 range through the afternoon.
Therefore, do not have plans, at this time, to extend the current
heat advisory through tomorrow.

Hot conditions will persist through Thursday, before a substantial
frontal boundary finally pushes in from the northwest, bringing
better precipitation chances to the region Friday into Saturday,
along with cooler temperatures.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  97  75 /  40  40  20  10
Hobart OK         88  75  99  76 /  90  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  94  76 101  77 /  60  40  20  10
Gage OK           96  72  97  73 /  30  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     91  75  95  76 /  40  30  20  10
Durant OK        100  76 100  77 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ026-030>032-
     041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

11/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1203 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...
AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS.

.HEAT...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS OR
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA EVERYDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS... HEAVY RAIN... AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
219 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ040-041-081945-
MURRAY OK-GARVIN OK-
219 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MURRAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN GARVIN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DAVIS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SULPHUR...DAVIS AND LAKE OF THE ARBUCKLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 9713 3455 9720 3469 9700 3450 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 243DEG 6KT 3451 9714

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
243 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ048-052-082015-
ATOKA OK-BRYAN OK-
243 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ATOKA AND
NORTHEASTERN BRYAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 241 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
BOKCHITO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOKCHITO...BENNINGTON...LANE AND BENTLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 9598 3415 9596 3412 9594 3404 9594
      3397 9611 3412 9624 3433 9599 3416 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 234DEG 14KT 3410 9611

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ032-082030-
HUGHES OK-
301 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HUGHES COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 259 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GERTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STUART.

LAT...LON 3483 9623 3484 9629 3490 9630 3501 9614
      3492 9609 3488 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 232DEG 12KT 3488 9624

KURTZ