Severe Thunderstorm Warning 709, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
249 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is placed on continued
shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon and additional
development into the evening.

Earlier this morning, a noticable MCV had developed in response to
ongoing convection, near Altus, and has continued to provide focus
for sustaining convection into this afternoon across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Expect this activity to persist
through the afternoon into the evening. Overall, Theta-e advection
into the Texoma region continues, with decent MLCAPE values of 1000
to 2000 J/Kg. Shear is paltry, given the lack of strong mid-level
support outside the remnant MCV. However, given the last few days,
and given the MCV, no doubt, some isolated updrafts will make the
push to strong to severe. Hail threat will be near zero, but
downburst winds, to 60 mph, are the primary concern given boundary
layer dew point spreads. Other concerns will be frequent lightning
and brief heavy rainfall. Into the evening, short range guidance,
both traditional and CAMs, become bullish across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. The GFS's convective feedback is
poor, the most aggressive of guidance, with even the HRRR, NAM, and
ECMWF having their moments. However, still expect continued
development through the evening.

Overnight, increased precipitation chances across western Oklahoma
and western north Texas between 7pm and Midnight, as surface
convergence will increase slightly, with scattered showers/thunder
remaining possible through the overnight into early Tuesday.

Tuesday, will keep slight chance of showers/thunder through the day
as remnant activity from overnight may linger, especially with the
strengthening western trough and 500mb ridge continuing its slide
eastward. With increasing low to mid level flow from the
south/southeast, expect better boundary layer mixing across the
hottest areas, keeping dew points down just enough for heat indices
to only push into the 100 to 104 range through the afternoon.
Therefore, do not have plans, at this time, to extend the current
heat advisory through tomorrow.

Hot conditions will persist through Thursday, before a substantial
frontal boundary finally pushes in from the northwest, bringing
better precipitation chances to the region Friday into Saturday,
along with cooler temperatures.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  97  75 /  40  40  20  10
Hobart OK         88  75  99  76 /  90  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  94  76 101  77 /  60  40  20  10
Gage OK           96  72  97  73 /  30  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     91  75  95  76 /  40  30  20  10
Durant OK        100  76 100  77 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ026-030>032-
     041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

11/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-092130-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
429 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS.

.HEAT...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA EVERYDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM AFFECT THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS..HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
512 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ047-048-052-082245-
ATOKA OK-BRYAN OK-JOHNSTON OK-
512 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ATOKA...NORTH
CENTRAL BRYAN AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 509 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KENEFIC...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3406 9635 3410 9646 3427 9643 3421 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 201DEG 8KT 3415 9638

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

TXZ084-087-082315-
KNOX TX-FOARD TX-
539 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KNOX AND
SOUTHWESTERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 536 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
TRUSCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3392 10005 3399 9994 3376 9962 3350 9998
      3356 9999 3383 10000 3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 231DEG 31KT 3373 10000

SIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
541 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE BURNEYVILLE        33.88N 97.26W
08/08/2016  M66 MPH          LOVE               OK   MESONET

            66 MPH GUST MEAURED BY THE OKLAHOMA MESONET

&&

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ050-051-082315-
LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-
544 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOVE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 543 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LEBANON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3402 9707 3405 9687 3391 9681 3388 9689
      3394 9690 3396 9692 3394 9697 3395 9698
      3396 9698 3395 9700 3389 9698 3386 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 154DEG 9KT 3391 9695

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
554 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ045-082330-
JEFFERSON OK-
554 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 552 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRADY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3405 9787 3411 9762 3397 9757 3396 9760
      3398 9764 3399 9767 3399 9768 3398 9770
      3395 9771 3394 9774 3394 9776 3392 9776
      3391 9777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 139DEG 3KT 3401 9771

SIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE BURNEYVILLE        33.88N 97.26W
08/08/2016  M68 MPH          LOVE               OK   MESONET

            68 MPH MEASURED BY THE OKLAHOMA MESONET NEAR BURNEYVILLE

&&

MBS