Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
249 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is placed on continued
shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon and additional
development into the evening.

Earlier this morning, a noticable MCV had developed in response to
ongoing convection, near Altus, and has continued to provide focus
for sustaining convection into this afternoon across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Expect this activity to persist
through the afternoon into the evening. Overall, Theta-e advection
into the Texoma region continues, with decent MLCAPE values of 1000
to 2000 J/Kg. Shear is paltry, given the lack of strong mid-level
support outside the remnant MCV. However, given the last few days,
and given the MCV, no doubt, some isolated updrafts will make the
push to strong to severe. Hail threat will be near zero, but
downburst winds, to 60 mph, are the primary concern given boundary
layer dew point spreads. Other concerns will be frequent lightning
and brief heavy rainfall. Into the evening, short range guidance,
both traditional and CAMs, become bullish across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. The GFS's convective feedback is
poor, the most aggressive of guidance, with even the HRRR, NAM, and
ECMWF having their moments. However, still expect continued
development through the evening.

Overnight, increased precipitation chances across western Oklahoma
and western north Texas between 7pm and Midnight, as surface
convergence will increase slightly, with scattered showers/thunder
remaining possible through the overnight into early Tuesday.

Tuesday, will keep slight chance of showers/thunder through the day
as remnant activity from overnight may linger, especially with the
strengthening western trough and 500mb ridge continuing its slide
eastward. With increasing low to mid level flow from the
south/southeast, expect better boundary layer mixing across the
hottest areas, keeping dew points down just enough for heat indices
to only push into the 100 to 104 range through the afternoon.
Therefore, do not have plans, at this time, to extend the current
heat advisory through tomorrow.

Hot conditions will persist through Thursday, before a substantial
frontal boundary finally pushes in from the northwest, bringing
better precipitation chances to the region Friday into Saturday,
along with cooler temperatures.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  97  75 /  40  40  20  10
Hobart OK         88  75  99  76 /  90  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  94  76 101  77 /  60  40  20  10
Gage OK           96  72  97  73 /  30  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     91  75  95  76 /  40  30  20  10
Durant OK        100  76 100  77 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ026-030>032-
     041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

11/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1203 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...
AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS.

.HEAT...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS OR
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA EVERYDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS... HEAVY RAIN... AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ045-082100-
JEFFERSON OK-
335 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSCAR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSCAR AND GRADY.

LAT...LON 3401 9783 3409 9773 3403 9766 3400 9764
      3397 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 222DEG 3KT 3401 9777

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ043-082115-
COAL OK-
339 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COAL COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 337 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TUPELO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUPELO.

LAT...LON 3458 9644 3463 9648 3468 9644 3468 9641
      3471 9640 3469 9635 3465 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 224DEG 3KT 3463 9643

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             DAVIS                   34.50N 97.12W
08/08/2016  E1.75 INCH       MURRAY             OK   POST OFFICE

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     DAVIS                   34.50N 97.12W
08/08/2016  E70.00 MPH       MURRAY             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RELAYED BY SULPHUR FD

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

TXZ090-082115-
CLAY TX-
342 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 341 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWPORT. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWPORT.

LAT...LON 3352 9813 3357 9798 3347 9798 3347 9817
      3348 9817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 183DEG 3KT 3350 9802

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ042-043-082115-
COAL OK-PONTOTOC OK-
346 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL COAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PONTOTOC COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 344 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF FITTSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONEWALL AND JESSE.

LAT...LON 3451 9652 3450 9656 3451 9660 3456 9666
      3467 9658 3466 9649 3462 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 214DEG 4KT 3457 9657

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
413 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

OKZ042-043-082145-
COAL OK-PONTOTOC OK-
413 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PONTOTOC COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TUPELO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUPELO...CENTRAHOMA AND JESSE.

LAT...LON 3449 9637 3457 9654 3480 9645 3479 9641
      3477 9641 3477 9632 3476 9628 3467 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 210DEG 16KT 3459 9639

KURTZ