Severe Thunderstorm Warning 831, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated strong/severe TSRA will continue until a few hours after
sunset--mainly over north-central Oklahoma. Winds west of a
dryline (located approximately KAVK-KCSM-KHBR-KLTS-F05 at 2300Z)
will become generally light and variable after sunset. Elsewhere,
10-15 kt winds from the S-SE will continue through the period.
Winds should be somewhat lighter on Wednesday. There will be
another chance of TSRA tomorrow afternoon and evening (mainly in
the general vicinity of I-44), but chances are currently too low
to include in the TAFs.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the dryline late
this afternoon. Various convective-allowing models (HRRR/HRRRX/4KM
NAM) are persistent in discrete supercells developing across
southwest Oklahoma and moving northeastward into central Oklahoma.
Analysis of the HRRR indicates localized backing/increased
convergence along a dryline bulge could be a factor for convective
iniation in the models. Visible satellite imagery indicates a
possible perturbation/ascent across western north Texas/southwest
Oklahoma which might be aiding in pressure falls/localized
backing. There is some evidence of this perturbation on the 700
mb flow.

Vertical wind shear will be more than sufficient for supercells with
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. By around 00Z, low-
level (0-1 km) vertical wind shear (~20 knots), MLLCLs (<1 km),
and critical angles (~90 degrees) will result in sufficient
environment for potential tornadogenesis with any supercells.

Tomorrow, at least isolated showers/storms will be possible with a
moist, conditionally unstable airmass still in place.
Coverage/confidence for storms is low with no significant forcing.
Coverage may increase overnight as isentropic ascent increases.

By late Thursday into Thursday night, a seasonably strong cold front
will progress from northwest to southeast across Oklahoma/western
north Texas. Severe weather will be possible; however, because of
linear forcing along the cold front, the primary hazards will be
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Lingering showers/storms
will be possible Friday morning across southern Oklahoma/western
north Texas.

Much drier/cooler air is expected in the front's wake on Friday and
Saturday. Many locations will drop into the 40Fs by Saturday
morning, and with dew points dropping into the 30Fs and light
winds, some locations across northwest Oklahoma may drop into the
upper 30Fs.

By Sunday, a shortwave trough may increase the chance of showers,
especially northwest Oklahoma. The forecast becomes more uncertain
beyond Sunday as the GFS and ECMWF become somewhat out of phase
across the Southern Plains. However, a general pattern of quasi-
zonal flow with embedded shortwaves suggests seasonable
temperatures with at least a low chance of rain.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  88  69  87 /  40  10  30  30
Hobart OK         57  88  68  87 /  10  10  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  67  92  69  90 /  20  10  30  20
Gage OK           49  86  58  87 /   0   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     63  89  69  87 /  60  10  40  40
Durant OK         71  89  69  88 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

11/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS LOCATIONS THAT ARE ENCOMPASSED BY
A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHEROKEE... TO EL RENO... TO CHICKASHA...
TO ADA. THIS INCLUDES THE OKC METRO.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

OKZ028-029-050330-
MCCLAIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-
959 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MCCLAIN AND EASTERN
CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 958 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WASHINGTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3498 9750 3509 9759 3531 9730 3516 9714
      3509 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 235DEG 23KT 3507 9749

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     HAIL             N LUTHER                35.66N 97.19W
10/04/2016  E1.75 INCH       OKLAHOMA           OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AT COFFEE CREEK RD. RELAYED BY EM

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     HAIL             3 NW LUTHER             35.69N 97.23W
10/04/2016  E1.75 INCH       OKLAHOMA           OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AT COFFEE CREEK RD. RELAYED BY EM

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HAIL             6 W MEEKER              35.50N 97.00W
10/04/2016  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN JACKTOWN.

&&

JPIKE