Severe Thunderstorm Warning 840, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
248 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Several runs of the operational HRRR indicate a few storms may
develop by late afternoon across western north Texas and far
southern Oklahoma. This will mainly occur along and near a
dryline. Instability and shear will certainly support a few severe
storms with hail and wind.

During evening and overnight, surface winds will back and better
moisture will return to western Oklahoma. This may result in
additional showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, better chances
for showers and storms should shift into northern Oklahoma as
strong low level flow gradually decreases across southern Kansas.

A little uncertain about showers and thunderstorm chances Thursday
morning and early afternoon, but some cloud cover will linger
through the morning.

By late afternoon, a cold front will enter far northern Oklahoma as
a trough lifts from the central Rockies into the central
Plains.  Better height falls will remain north of the area, but a
deep enough frontal boundary will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms along and just behind the front. Moderate
instability ahead of the front will allow for strong to severe
storms, with strong winds and hail.

The front will clear southern Oklahoma and western north Texas by
early morning Friday.  Therefore, some rain and showers may linger
near the Red River early but better chances for rain will be
across northern and central Texas.

Mainly dry conditions are expected over the weekend.  A trough will
skirt northwestern Oklahoma late in the weekend/early Monday.
Some elevated showers and storms may develop as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  87  54  67 /  30  30  80  20
Hobart OK         69  86  54  68 /  30  40  80  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  89  59  70 /  20  10  70  50
Gage OK           59  87  45  70 /  10  30  40  10
Ponca City OK     70  88  51  67 /  40  50  90  20
Durant OK         71  88  65  75 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1148 AM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SURFACE
HEATING AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. IF THESE STORMS
DEVELOP... SOME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THE MORE LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERNS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

TXZ087-088-052330-
KNOX TX-BAYLOR TX-
555 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX AND
SOUTHWESTERN BAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 550 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GOREE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3340 9961 3343 9964 3358 9945 3355 9935
      3345 9933 3340 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 237DEG 18KT 3345 9951

MAD