Alert archive / Oklahoma / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 491

October 4, 201631 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 4, 2016, 3:40 PM CDT for 31 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 4, 2016, 3:40 PM CDT (20:40 UTC)
Expired
Oct 4, 2016, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 31 counties

Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Major County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 4, 6:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNAlfalfa, Grant39 min
Oct 4, 6:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCaddo, Grady39 min
Oct 4, 6:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGrant, Kay49 min
Oct 4, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNAlfalfa, Garfield, Grant, Major47 min
Oct 4, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCanadian, Grady48 min
Oct 4, 7:35 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNGrant3 hr
Oct 4, 7:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGrant, Kay48 min
Oct 4, 7:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCleveland, McClain, Oklahoma50 min
Oct 4, 7:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGarfield, Major49 min
Oct 4, 8:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCanadian, Grady21 min
Oct 4, 8:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNKay69 min
Oct 4, 8:37 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNGarfield, Major38 min
Oct 4, 8:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGarfield, Noble46 min
Oct 4, 8:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCleveland, Oklahoma45 min
Oct 4, 8:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNOklahoma38 min
Oct 4, 9:07 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNGarfield, Major83 min
Oct 4, 9:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCleveland, Lincoln, Oklahoma, Pottawatomie46 min
Oct 4, 9:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGarfield45 min
Oct 4, 9:31 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNKay3 hr
Oct 4, 9:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNLincoln, Logan, Oklahoma44 min
Oct 4, 10:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNLincoln48 min
Oct 4, 10:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGarfield, Kingfisher, Logan, Noble46 min
Oct 4, 10:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNLincoln45 min
Oct 4, 10:38 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNGarfield, Noble4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 29 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2016-10-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2016-10-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 329 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1272 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
329 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
329 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

726 
WWUS20 KWNS 042036
SEL1  
SPC WW 042036
OKZ000-050200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
    TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWEST OK AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.
 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 4, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 22 more114 min
Oct 4, 4:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Garfield, Grant, Kay, Kingfisher and 3 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.