Severe Thunderstorm Warning 630, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
233 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Determining rain chances over the next several days is the
challenge of the day. Summer heat will continue.

Before midnight tonight, believe a few thunderstorms will remain
across the area, though storm coverage should be rather low due to
weak subsidence behind a mid/upper trough that is over
southeastern Oklahoma. Generally only went 10-20% rain chances
this evening with higher chances 40-90% this afternoon near the
Red River east of Wichita Falls. Current complex of storms along
the Red River near and east of I-35 as of 230 PM will continue to
push south into north Texas. Believe a few additional storms may
form on lingering outflow boundaries mainly southeast of I-44
where deepest moisture exists with precipitable water values
1.7-2". Any storm should be slow moving which can dump a few
inches of rainfall in small areas. Severe potential is low, though
cannot rule out damaging winds up to 60 mph if storms occur as
daytime heating supports DCAPE values of 1000-1800 J/kg.

After midnight tonight, a few storms may linger closer to the
departing mid/upper trough and where moisture convergence may be
stronger in southeastern Oklahoma. A complex or two of storms may
occur across the High Plains and get into far western Oklahoma and
far western north Texas, though it appears the greater chances for
this to occur will be over the Panhandles.

Sunday looks to be another hot and humid day with even lower rain
chances than today as the cap strengthens. Head indices may
approach 105 degrees in some areas. Did not issue a Heat Advisory
as not sure how high surface dewpoints will be. Cannot completely
rule out a stray afternoon and evening storm, but chances appear
to be too low to mention, generally below 15%.

Sunday night into Monday, there is a slight signal that storms
over the High Plains may make into the area, but confidence is
very low. Hot and humid conditions will continue. Surface winds
will increase on Monday.

Monday night through Friday, no signficant changes in the weather
pattern are expected with continued hot weather along with low
chances for showers and storms. A weak front may approach Kansas
or northern Oklahoma during this time frame which could serve as a
focus for higher rain chances. Chances of widespread rainfall
remain low during this time frame.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  93  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
Hobart OK         75  98  77  99 /  20  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  76  98  77  99 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           72  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     74  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  10
Durant OK         75  92  75  95 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

06/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PART OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG
A SOUTH OF A WOODWARD TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND MCALESTER LINE.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF OKLAHOMA.

THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH. QUARTER
TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

OKZ046-050-091945-
CARTER OK-LOVE OK-
210 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CARTER AND CENTRAL
LOVE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 207 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
BURNEYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED BETWEEN BURNEYVILLE AND MARIETTA.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3376 9719 3385 9717 3392 9721 3386 9726
      3389 9731 3386 9733 3388 9733 3388 9734
      3385 9735 3386 9735 3414 9743 3417 9717
      3388 9698 3384 9704 3385 9709 3382 9705
      3380 9709 3375 9709 3372 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 335DEG 16KT 3400 9730

SIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S CENTRAHOMA          34.57N 96.34W
07/09/2016                   COAL               OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND LIMBS DOWNED BY DAMAGING WINDS. POWER
            POLE WAS SNAPPED. DAMAGE REPORTED NEAR N3750 ROAD.

&&

MBS

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