Severe Thunderstorm Warning 625, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding remain the biggest concerns tonight.

Thunderstorms were occurring in clusters from near Quanah Texas
to Altus to Norman Oklahoma as of 640 PM. These storms will
continue to move east and southeast over the next hours with
locations south of the line mentioned above having the greatest
potential for storms. Storms may organize into one or more lines
across southern Oklahoma and north Texas in the next several hours
as the low level jet increases. The air remains moist and very
unstable, though shear remains marginal for supercell development
with 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kt.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains the main concerns with
storms this evening with precipitable water values 1.7-2.2",
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Rainfall rates
2-5"/hr are likely with the slowest storms, and rainfall amounts
of 1-5" may occur this evening in some locations.

There is some potential for severe, mainly damaging winds up to 70
mph. Large hail may occur with a few cells as well. Damaging wind
potential could increase if clusters evolve into organized lines.
Do not think severe potential will be widespread due to the lack
of strong shear. Severe potential should decrease after 10 PM with
the loss of daytime heating.

For northern Oklahoma, no severe storms and flash flooding are
expected this evening. Additional storm formation could occur
later tonight after midnight, though confidence is low.

Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected.

Isolated to numerous TSRA will affect locations south of KCSM-KEND
through at least 05 UTC. Kept VCTS/TEMPO mention in at most sites
including KOKC, KLAW, and KSPS during this time. Brief MVFR
conditions and variable surface winds will occur with TSRA.

Additional TSRA may occur after 05 UTC, but was not mentioned at
any TAF sites due to low confidence of occurrence.

There is a slight chance for BR/FG and MVFR or lower conditions at
most sites 08-16 UTC, but did not mention due to very low
confidence of occurrence.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Messy set up today making it difficult to forecast what will
happen the rest of this afternoon and tonight.

First off, band of showers and isolated storms continues to
develop and move across portions of Northern Oklahoma this
afternoon. Right now, it looks like 3 different additional
areas/ways for showers/storms to develop and affect parts of the
area. Storms could develop this afternoon/evening near any
remaining outflow, differential heating boundaries and or front
that are across the fa. Along those lines, there appears to be a
east-west boundary in West Central OK with visible satellite
showing the clouds bubbling from there into southwest OK where the
lower amount of clouds has allowed more heating to occur today.
This could be an area for storm development over the next few
hours. Another area of storms could develop in West Texas and move
east into parts of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. A
third way for storms to affect the area will be with activity
developing in the High Plains then moving into the fa later
tonight into Saturday morning. Anyone or all of these scenarios
could occur. Heating, boundaries, and a disturbance in the mid-
upper level flow would be aiding the additional storm
development. Some of the storms might become severe with damaging
winds and large hail possible. Heavy rain leading to localized
flooding will also be a concern through Saturday morning.

Showers and storms will remain possible Saturday with boundaries
lingering over the fa and disturbances moving across the region. A
few strong to severe storms could be possible in parts of the fa
again Saturday. Rain chances become more isolated Sunday and
Monday with showers/storms possible for small portions of the fa.
The next better chance for storms may be Tuesday as another
frontal boundary approaches the area when an upper system moves
across the Northern Plains.

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/17/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-092200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
448 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
STILLWATER TO WOODWARD LINE. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA EXTENDS FROM VERNON TEXAS TO ARDMORE AND ATOKA OKLAHOMA.
THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WHICH COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS... WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE THESE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MY
STILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.HEAT...
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THE MARGINAL RISK IS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR CHEYENNE... TO WATONGA... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO
SEMINOLE OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OKZ024-025-082315-
OKLAHOMA OK-CANADIAN OK-
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EAST CENTRAL
CANADIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 542 PM CDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS EXTENDED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BETHANY TO NEAR BETHANY TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MUSTANG...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3572 9740 3559 9728 3538 9731 3538 9774
      3547 9771 3559 9777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 249DEG 32KT 3555 9768 3550 9765 3542 9768

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OKZ028-029-082345-
MCCLAIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN AND CENTRAL
CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GOLDSBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE
LOCATED FROM DIBBLE TO PAYNE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3487 9758 3507 9765 3533 9747 3521 9723
      3487 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 217DEG 10KT 3511 9748

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S ALTUS               34.60N 99.33W
07/08/2016  M58 MPH          JACKSON            OK   MESONET

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE GRANITE           34.95N 99.35W
07/08/2016                   GREER              OK   PUBLIC

            2 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWNED

&&

JPIKE

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