Severe Thunderstorm Warning 628, NWS Norman, OK

760 
WWUS54 KOUN 090145
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OKC031-033-141-090155-
/O.EXP.KOUN.SV.W.0628.000000T0000Z-160709T0145Z/
COTTON OK-TILLMAN OK-COMANCHE OK-
845 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN COTTON...TILLMAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3411 9854 3412 9856 3413 9855 3416 9860
      3417 9865 3413 9871 3414 9880 3416 9883
      3415 9888 3417 9887 3418 9891 3421 9895
      3420 9897 3422 9899 3420 9901 3421 9910
      3420 9913 3458 9904 3462 9829 3409 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 272DEG 28KT 3449 9883 3420 9895 

$$

..SPEG.

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
721 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Increased rain chances this evening south of ongoing storms,
mainly southeast of a Quanah Texas to Clinton to Stillwater line.
Also, lowered overnight lows a bit as well as adjusted hourly
grids to handle ongoing weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Two large clusters of storms with very heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and pockets of damaging winds will continue to move
east and southeast over the next several hours, affecting mainly
southern Oklahoma. Will continue to monitor.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding remain the biggest concerns tonight.

Thunderstorms were occurring in clusters from near Quanah Texas
to Altus to Norman Oklahoma as of 640 PM. These storms will
continue to move east and southeast over the next hours with
locations south of the line mentioned above having the greatest
potential for storms. Storms may organize into one or more lines
across southern Oklahoma and north Texas in the next several hours
as the low level jet increases. The air remains moist and very
unstable, though shear remains marginal for supercell development
with 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kt.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains the main concerns with
storms this evening with precipitable water values 1.7-2.2",
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Rainfall rates
2-5"/hr are likely with the slowest storms, and rainfall amounts
of 1-5" may occur this evening in some locations.

There is some potential for severe, mainly damaging winds up to 70
mph. Large hail may occur with a few cells as well. Damaging wind
potential could increase if clusters evolve into organized lines.
Do not think severe potential will be widespread due to the lack
of strong shear. Severe potential should decrease after 10 PM with
the loss of daytime heating.

For northern Oklahoma, no severe storms and flash flooding are
expected this evening. Additional storm formation could occur
later tonight after midnight, though confidence is low.

Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

MBS

AVIATION...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected.

Isolated to numerous TSRA will affect locations south of KCSM-KEND
through at least 05 UTC. Kept VCTS/TEMPO mention in at most sites
including KOKC, KLAW, and KSPS during this time. Brief MVFR
conditions and variable surface winds will occur with TSRA.

Additional TSRA may occur after 05 UTC, but was not mentioned at
any TAF sites due to low confidence of occurrence.

There is a slight chance for BR/FG and MVFR or lower conditions at
most sites 08-16 UTC, but did not mention due to very low
confidence of occurrence.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Messy set up today making it difficult to forecast what will
happen the rest of this afternoon and tonight.

First off, band of showers and isolated storms continues to
develop and move across portions of Northern Oklahoma this
afternoon. Right now, it looks like 3 different additional
areas/ways for showers/storms to develop and affect parts of the
area. Storms could develop this afternoon/evening near any
remaining outflow, differential heating boundaries and or front
that are across the fa. Along those lines, there appears to be a
east-west boundary in West Central OK with visible satellite
showing the clouds bubbling from there into southwest OK where the
lower amount of clouds has allowed more heating to occur today.
This could be an area for storm development over the next few
hours. Another area of storms could develop in West Texas and move
east into parts of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. A
third way for storms to affect the area will be with activity
developing in the High Plains then moving into the fa later
tonight into Saturday morning. Anyone or all of these scenarios
could occur. Heating, boundaries, and a disturbance in the mid-
upper level flow would be aiding the additional storm
development. Some of the storms might become severe with damaging
winds and large hail possible. Heavy rain leading to localized
flooding will also be a concern through Saturday morning.

Showers and storms will remain possible Saturday with boundaries
lingering over the fa and disturbances moving across the region. A
few strong to severe storms could be possible in parts of the fa
again Saturday. Rain chances become more isolated Sunday and
Monday with showers/storms possible for small portions of the fa.
The next better chance for storms may be Tuesday as another
frontal boundary approaches the area when an upper system moves
across the Northern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  93  74  95 /  60  30  20  10
Hobart OK         72  99  75 100 / 100  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  99  77 100 /  70  20  10  10
Gage OK           71  96  71  99 /  30  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     73  89  73  93 /  50  40  30  10
Durant OK         73  94  77  94 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-092200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
448 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
STILLWATER TO WOODWARD LINE. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA EXTENDS FROM VERNON TEXAS TO ARDMORE AND ATOKA OKLAHOMA.
THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WHICH COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS... WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE THESE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MY
STILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.HEAT...
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THE MARGINAL RISK IS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR CHEYENNE... TO WATONGA... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO
SEMINOLE OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
722 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE HOBART             35.00N 99.06W
07/08/2016  M66.00 MPH       KIOWA              OK   ASOS

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
734 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW SHAWNEE           35.33N 96.94W
07/08/2016  M57 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OKZ027-028-090100-
GRADY OK-MCCLAIN OK-
735 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GRADY AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 732 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TABLER TO NEAR LINDSAY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3511 9768 3486 9714 3486 9767 3502 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 261DEG 14KT 3500 9784 3487 9757

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
742 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCLOUD                  35.44N 97.09W
07/08/2016                   POTTAWATOMIE       OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            14 INCH TREE DOWNED AT BROADWAY AND 6TH ST

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TECUMSEH                35.26N 96.94W
07/08/2016                   POTTAWATOMIE       OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE AT 9TH AND LOCUST

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
747 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW FREDERICK         34.34N 99.04W
07/08/2016  E0 MPH           TILLMAN            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60-65 MPH

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW FREDERICK         34.34N 99.04W
07/08/2016  E65.00 MPH       TILLMAN            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60-65 MPH

&&

JPIKE