Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT JUST S OF THE RED RIVER WILL LIFT SLOWLY N THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ENE ACROSS S OK. NEAR AND S OF
THE FRONT...THERE IS/WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. FARTHER
N...LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...ALONG WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES. AFTER 00Z...A DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO FORM
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MOST OF N TX AND OK...PRESUMABLY BRINGING
CLEARING CONDITIONS. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS OK
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW. AFTER ABOUT 00Z...MOST
TAF SITES SHOULD BE...AND REMAIN...VFR WITH NEARLY STEADY N-NW
WINDS. STRONG/SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHERE TSRA ARE MENTIONED IN TAFS AFTER 20Z...THOSE TSRA
MAY WELL BE SEVERE. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING AND CEILINGS...PRIOR TO 00Z.
CONFIDENCE THEN BEGINS TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMP GRIDS A LITTLE BIT COOLER FOR TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, AS WELL AS THE CLOUD GRIDS
FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT,
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, AS WELL AS THE UNCERTAINTY
TO THE NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR, LATEST HRR AND SHORT RANGE RAP & NAM MODELS ALL
LIFT THE WARM FRONT AS FAR NORTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BEFORE
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC
FORCING IS IN PLACE, WITH A TONGUE OF MU CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
J/KG AND HIGHER THAN MARGINAL LOW AND HIGH BASED SHEAR VALUES, IN
A NEARLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXIST FOR
SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOS ALL DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
THE BIGGEST RISK AREA RIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NOW
EXTENDS FROM I-40 TO SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, WITH A SLIGHT RISK TO
THE NORTH. OUN WILL BE MAKING A 19Z SPECIAL BALLO0N SOUNDING FOR
THIS EVENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER
MAINLY TWO PARTS OF THE CWA - SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN AREA OF
ENHANCED ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AS LEAD S/WV PUSHES OUT OF NORTHEAST NM. IN
BETWEEN...EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND CAM MODELS WITH REGARDS TO MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
BECOME CONVECTION FREE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SCENARIO
INCREASES THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO...DOWN TOWARD WICHITA FALLS AND AREAS EAST THROUGH
ARDMORE...ADA...AND DURANT. SUITE OF WRF CAMS SURGE THE DRYLINE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTING WELL EAST
OF INTERSTATE-35. THIS FORECAST APPEAR TOO FAR EAST WITH
INITIATION AND PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO HRRR/RAP DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS THIS MORNING...THIS TREND COULD CHANGE BUT POPS
WERE CONFIGURED CLOSER TO THIS LATTER SCENARIO. GIVEN PROGD
LOCATION OF SURFACE CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT...THIS WOULD YIELD
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
GREATER TORNADO PROBS VIA SPC. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION PROGD FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD DISRUPT/PREVENT SUSTAINED CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH.

OUTSIDE OF ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FAST MOVING SYSTEM STILL PROGD TO BRING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS PARTICULAR EPISODE IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  51  73  47 /  60  30  10   0
HOBART OK         75  46  72  45 /  40  30   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  51  76  49 /  40  20   0   0
GAGE OK           53  41  67  41 /  70  30   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     64  50  72  45 /  60  80  10   0
DURANT OK         77  61  79  54 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

68/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301715-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1202 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...TO ALTUS...TO LAWTON...TO PAULS VALLEY TO
ADA. THIS ENHANCED RISK AREA IS SURROUNDED BY SLIGHT AND MARGINAL
RISKS.

TIMING...
MAINLY 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH AND TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...
BEFORE 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WHICH WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS SOME HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF HALF-DOLLARS.

AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE AND NEAR A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN IMPACT. STORMS
THAT ARE ORIENTED CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.HEAVY RAINFALL...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PARTS OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY REMAINS LOW.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             MANITOU                 34.51N 98.98W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       TILLMAN            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0245 PM     HAIL             MANITOU                 34.51N 98.98W
04/29/2016  E2.75 INCH       TILLMAN            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
247 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 E NEWKIRK             36.88N 96.91W
04/29/2016  E64.00 MPH       KAY                OK   MESONET

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ007-008-292030-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
254 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND KAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 252 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAMAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 9680 3667 9757 3698 9783 3700 9770
      3700 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 239DEG 49KT 3690 9737

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ008-013-020-292045-
NOBLE OK-PAYNE OK-KAY OK-
308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NOBLE...NORTHEASTERN
PAYNE AND KAY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES WEST OF CHILOCCO TO 3 MILES WEST OF MORRISON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3684 9675 3678 9675 3677 9682 3674 9683
      3675 9689 3668 9693 3668 9706 3659 9706
      3660 9691 3658 9689 3651 9703 3633 9703
      3633 9692 3625 9692 3624 9682 3616 9682
      3615 9662 3616 9722 3699 9740 3700 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 212DEG 46KT 3695 9719 3630 9707