Flood Watch 8, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.AVIATION...06/12z TAF Issuance...
A busy aviation day is on tap. Thunderstorms will continue to
impact airfields across north central Oklahoma this morning. A
lull in activity may develop through mid morning, but the arrival
of a frontal boundary mid to late in the afternoon will result in
thunderstorms potentially impacting each TAF site at various
points through the later half of the period, MVFR ceilings and
visiblities are likely. Winds will remain gusty and out of the
south ahead of the front, before shifting out of the north behind
the front late in the period.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is focused on current thunderstorms this
morning and development later this afternoon and evening.

Currently, it has been active this morning across portions of
northern Oklahoma and even across western Oklahoma. 06/07Z Surface
analysis reveals a surface from western into north central Oklahoma.
Aloft, the 850mb low level jet remains elevated, 35-45 kts, while
warm air advection through Wednesday has resulted in upper 60s dew
points spread across nearly all of Oklahoma. In response, storms
continue to be supported by 30-35 kts of deep layer shear along with
a 2000 to 2500 J/Kg mixed layer CAPE. We've had several stout storms
this morning, with surface winds estimated between 60 and 70 mph
with the strongest. This activity is anticipated to continue through
the morning hours, gradually shifting east and northeast with time.

For today, expect some lingering showers and thunderstorms across
portions of north central Oklahoma after sunrise. Into the afternoon
hours, a pre-frontal trough/dry line-esque type surface boundary
will develop over northwestern and western Oklahoma. Increasing warm
air advection through the day will keep dew points elevated, with
daytime heating resulting in surface based CAPEs in the 2000 to 2500
J/Kg range pooling across a large portion Oklahoma and north Texas.
As mentioned in the SPC Day One, the driver will be a 500mb short
wave, currently swinging eastward toward the Four Corners along with
an accompanying speed max. Although the effects of which will be
greatest in KS/NE/MO, southwesterly 500mb flow of 30 to 40 kts in
some locations will lend support to modest 0-6km shear, 20 to 30kts.
This should be enough, however, when paired with the decent
instability to support storm development. Expect convective
initiation in the mid to late afternoon, with storms just ahead of
or anchored to the boundary as it slowly pushes eastward. Given deep
layer shear orientations, expect multi-cellular development
initially, slowly evolving into a few or several line segments into
tomorrow evening. Concerned primarily with damaging wind gusts and
hail. The risk of a tornado is low, however, BUFR profiles from
north central Oklahoma into southern Kansas suggest a slight backing
of boundary layer winds, so 0-1 km shear could recover enough for a
few supercellular looking updrafts that may result in a few
potential tornadoes.

Into the evening and overnight, expect the line of convection to
continue moving south and east as the cold front finally pushes in
from the north. Increased precipitation chances to definite,
especially across central Oklahoma into northern Texas for Thursday
night. Pwats remain elevated, the 06/00z sonde came back with 1.2in,
which is in the 70th percentile for the time of year. Given the
speed of the front, flooding doesn't look like too much of a concern
at the moment, given brief residence times expected with the
convection. However, given the conditions, heavy rainfall is more
than possible and could lead to localized flash flooding in some
locations. ABRFC one hour flash flood guidance suggests most
locations across mid-Missouri and southern Missouri may only need
round 2 to 3 inches of additional rainfall before flooding becomes a
challenge.

Friday into the weekend, a few showers may be lingering across
southern Oklahoma Friday morning, then dry and cool weather takes
over for a change. These more seasonable conditions can also be
expected to carry into the start of next week.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  52  66  46 /  30  80  30   0
Hobart OK         88  52  67  45 /  40  70  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  56  69  50 /  20  80  50   0
Gage OK           87  45  69  42 /  20  40  10   0
Ponca City OK     87  49  67  42 /  60  80  10   0
Durant OK         88  63  74  53 /  10  60  40   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

30/04/04

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PONCA CITY              36.71N 97.09W
10/06/2016                   KAY                OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FOUND ON TWITTER... KOCO RETWEETED PICTURE OF LARGE TREE
            DOWN IN PONCA CITY... UPROOTED. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PONCA CITY              36.71N 97.09W
10/06/2016                   KAY                OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PONCA CITY EMERGENCY MANGER REPORTS UPWARDS OF 2 TO 3
            FEET OF WATER COVERING SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL STREETS.

&&

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ013-019-020-026-061215-
NOBLE OK-LOGAN OK-LINCOLN OK-PAYNE OK-
650 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE...SOUTHERN
LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND PAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 649 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR STILLWATER TO 7 MILES NORTH OF EDMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 9692 3625 9692 3624 9682 3616 9682
      3616 9680 3572 9712 3573 9765 3628 9712
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 232DEG 37KT 3612 9708 3576 9746

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW PONCA CITY        36.75N 97.11W
10/06/2016                   KAY                OK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS VIA TWITTER THAT HUBBARD ROAD IS CLOSED
            BETWEEN W AND WAVERLY STREETS.

&&

KURTZ