Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
254 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is focused on current thunderstorms this
morning and development later this afternoon and evening.

Currently, it has been active this morning across portions of
northern Oklahoma and even across western Oklahoma. 06/07Z Surface
analysis reveals a surface from western into north central Oklahoma.
Aloft, the 850mb low level jet remains elevated, 35-45 kts, while
warm air advection through Wednesday has resulted in upper 60s dew
points spread across nearly all of Oklahoma. In response, storms
continue to be supported by 30-35 kts of deep layer shear along with
a 2000 to 2500 J/Kg mixed layer CAPE. We've had several stout storms
this morning, with surface winds estimated between 60 and 70 mph
with the strongest. This activity is anticipated to continue through
the morning hours, gradually shifting east and northeast with time.

For today, expect some lingering showers and thunderstorms across
portions of north central Oklahoma after sunrise. Into the afternoon
hours, a pre-frontal trough/dry line-esque type surface boundary
will develop over northwestern and western Oklahoma. Increasing warm
air advection through the day will keep dew points elevated, with
daytime heating resulting in surface based CAPEs in the 2000 to 2500
J/Kg range pooling across a large portion Oklahoma and north Texas.
As mentioned in the SPC Day One, the driver will be a 500mb short
wave, currently swinging eastward toward the Four Corners along with
an accompanying speed max. Although the effects of which will be
greatest in KS/NE/MO, southwesterly 500mb flow of 30 to 40 kts in
some locations will lend support to modest 0-6km shear, 20 to 30kts.
This should be enough, however, when paired with the decent
instability to support storm development. Expect convective
initiation in the mid to late afternoon, with storms just ahead of
or anchored to the boundary as it slowly pushes eastward. Given deep
layer shear orientations, expect multi-cellular development
initially, slowly evolving into a few or several line segments into
tomorrow evening. Concerned primarily with damaging wind gusts and
hail. The risk of a tornado is low, however, BUFR profiles from
north central Oklahoma into southern Kansas suggest a slight backing
of boundary layer winds, so 0-1 km shear could recover enough for a
few supercellular looking updrafts that may result in a few
potential tornadoes.

Into the evening and overnight, expect the line of convection to
continue moving south and east as the cold front finally pushes in
from the north. Increased precipitation chances to definite,
especially across central Oklahoma into northern Texas for Thursday
night. Pwats remain elevated, the 06/00z sonde came back with 1.2in,
which is in the 70th percentile for the time of year. Given the
speed of the front, flooding doesn't look like too much of a concern
at the moment, given brief residence times expected with the
convection. However, given the conditions, heavy rainfall is more
than possible and could lead to localized flash flooding in some
locations. ABRFC one hour flash flood guidance suggests most
locations across mid-Missouri and southern Missouri may only need
round 2 to 3 inches of additional rainfall before flooding becomes a
challenge.

Friday into the weekend, a few showers may be lingering across
southern Oklahoma Friday morning, then dry and cool weather takes
over for a change. These more seasonable conditions can also be
expected to carry into the start of next week.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  54  67  46 /  30  80  20   0
Hobart OK         86  54  68  46 /  40  80  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  89  59  70  51 /  10  70  50   0
Gage OK           87  45  70  41 /  30  40  10   0
Ponca City OK     88  51  67  43 /  50  90  20   0
Durant OK         88  65  75  54 /  10  40  30   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

30/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-062200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
352 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A SMALL
PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALVA...
TO CHEYENNE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUANAH TEXAS... TO
ANADARKO... OKLAHOMA CITY... TO CUSHING.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. A LOW RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERNS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OR TWO.

DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS AND MOVE MORE QUICKLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL POSE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ007-008-012-060615-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-GARFIELD OK-
1242 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN
KAY AND NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1241 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
LAMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3678 9727 3659 9743 3659 9746 3656 9746
      3643 9757 3643 9776 3655 9791 3683 9760
      3683 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 215DEG 28KT 3662 9755

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ006-007-060615-
GRANT OK-ALFALFA OK-
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND CENTRAL
ALFALFA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1241 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3658 9838 3666 9854 3681 9854 3699 9832
      3700 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 227DEG 30KT 3685 9816

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ014>016-060700-
ROGER MILLS OK-CUSTER OK-DEWEY OK-
133 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS...CUSTER
AND SOUTHERN DEWEY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 132 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES EAST OF PUTNAM TO NEAR HAMMON TO NEAR CHEYENNE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 9864 3594 9905 3584 9954 3551 9979
      3554 9939 3560 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 225DEG 24KT 3583 9886 3563 9936 3558 9965

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
217 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ007-008-012-060800-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-GARFIELD OK-
217 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRANT...NORTHWESTERN KAY
AND NORTH CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 214 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR BRAMAN TO 4 MILES WEST OF BLACKWELL TO NEAR LAMONT TO 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HUNTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9685 3679 9715 3640 9781 3661 9796
      3672 9779 3700 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 238DEG 41KT 3696 9734 3679 9736 3665 9756 3654
9772

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
243 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PONCA CITY              36.71N 97.09W
10/06/2016                   KAY                OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE CITY. POWER OUTAGES
            ACROSS MUCH OF PONCA CITY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT STREET
            FLOODING.

&&

SC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
307 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

OKZ007-008-012-061100-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-GARFIELD OK-
307 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRANT...KAY AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 305 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARDY TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF KILDARE TO NEAR
TONKAWA TO NEAR HUNTER TO 3 MILES EAST OF DRUMMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9676 3677 9682 3674 9683 3675 9689
      3668 9693 3669 9702 3670 9703 3669 9705
      3666 9706 3662 9705 3659 9746 3654 9746
      3620 9766 3619 9810 3659 9804 3700 9758
      3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0805Z 230DEG 29KT 3695 9675 3684 9701 3672 9729 3654
9771 3630 9798

30