Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
332 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms now into our northwestern portions of
the cwa. Dewpoints in the 70s have allowed cape values to climb to
high levels this afternoon. In the mid and upper levels, pva is
helping to drive these storms as an impulse rides southeastward. 850
mb flow is rather light with only 15 to 20 kts indicated.
Nevertheless, these storms carry some height with them and a few
wind damage reports have been received over the past few hours.

HRRR seems to be handling this convection rather well. It indicates
that this activity should be rather progressive as it moves to the
southeast. Overnight...airmass will become more stable with time and
will therefore lower pops down to 20 to 30 percent after midnight.
Otw, will definitely include a pre evening period and tailor the
pops to the recent radar trends.

On Thursday, thermal troughing will lean more toward ridging as +23c
850 mb temps spread across the area. Northerly mid and upper level
flow looks disturbance free during the day with stronger low level
subsidence during the afternoon. However, with the activity
potentially becoming active again by evening, will still include a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Then on Thursday night, a frontal
boundary will be on approach. Given the heat in place, one would
think that reasonably high pops would be needed. However...mid level
temps are rather warm and the atmosphere looks capped. Question is,
will the boundary be strong enough to bust the cap and tap into the
impressively high cape values.  Latest spc day 2 info keeps the
slight risk to our east, where the better forcing along the boundary
resides. Will continue to carry low pops for showers and tstms.

Behind Thursday nights fropa, the drier air looks as though it will
win out by Friday and Friday nt.

For the near term temps, the heat on Thursday will definitely be on.
Will go mid to upper 90s for much of the area west of the Plateau.
We'll then cool it off a good 8 degrees or so on Friday.

In the ext fcst, gfs and euro solutions match up rather favorably.
A large shield of upper ridging looks as though it will dominate
much of the central and southern U.S.. The positioning of the axis
will pinwheel from the nations interior and elongate w-e over the
southern tier by Monday. Thankfully, The upper high center will
remain over the desert southwest and will put a hold on any
impressive thermal ridging across the southeastern U.S.. Thus, hot
and dry for the extended, but not too terrible and no heat
advisories are expected at this time. Dewpoints will be tolerable.

By late in the extended, w-e ridging will become suppressed and the
pattern will morph into more of a height elevated northwesterly flow
regime. With weak boundaries moving our way late in the extended,
will include low shower and thunderstorm chances by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed NW of KCKV. This
line will push SEWD over the next several hours and likely affect
all 3 of our mid-state terminals through 00Z this evening. Gusty
winds and reduced vis are the mostly likely effects from this line
for a couple of hours at each terminal. Have tried to time this
line out with TEMPOs for KCKV/KBNA and will AMD later for KCSV as
the line closes in on I-65.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  96  72  88  68 /  40  20  20  10   0
Clarksville    72  96  70  87  66 /  30  20  20  10   0
Crossville     70  89  66  80  63 /  50  20  20  10   0
Columbia       71  96  72  89  68 /  50  20  20  20   0
Lawrenceburg   71  96  71  89  67 /  50  20  20  20   0
Waverly        71  95  71  87  66 /  40  20  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Unger

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-161800-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE LINE WILL BREAK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND
130 PM AND MOVE SWIFTLY THROUGH THE MID-STATE, LIKELY EXITING BY
7 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY. PROLONGED OUTDOOR
EXPOSURE COULD RESULT IN HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE SMYRNA             36.03N  86.45W
06/15/2016                   RUTHERFORD         TN   TWITTER

            TREE DOWNED BLOCKING WEAKLY LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600565

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE CARTHAGE          36.23N  85.88W
06/15/2016                   SMITH              TN   TWITTER

            IMAGE OF A LARGE TREE DOWN IN ELMWOOD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600566

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
508 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT JULIET            36.21N  86.52W
06/15/2016                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600567

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SMYRNA                  35.98N  86.52W
06/15/2016                   RUTHERFORD         TN   FACEBOOK

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN SMYRNA

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600568

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
515 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W GREEN HILL          36.23N  86.61W
06/15/2016                   DAVIDSON           TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN BRANDYWINE SUBDIVISION

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600569

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
517 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW MOUNT JULIET       36.18N  86.56W
06/15/2016                   WILSON             TN   FACEBOOK

            IMAGE OF A LARGE TREE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600570

JACKSON