Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Question whether thunderstorms will redevelop late this
afternoon/evening is initial concern...followed by pcpn chances in
the rest of the near term periods. Anticipated severe weather
threat not looking all that good at the moment. Recent sfc obs
reveal little in the way depicting a warm front upon which the
last several runs of the RAP13 has been advertising convection
would erupt. Current 88D mosaic is showing isolated cells over
nern KS and well as a few within our IA CWA...but it appears now
the threat for scattered TSRA development within the CWA has
diminished significantly with focus for convection more to the
north associated with potent vort max lifting into srn MN.
However...trend over the last hour has been CU field organizing
along with cluster of cells invof the srn CWA. Will therefore
focus evening POPs south...then the rest of tonight carry token
20s tonight with focus mainly over the ern CWA.

In regards to pcpn activity Wednesday afternoon/night...a cold front
dropping through the CWA will slow and become near stationary in the
vicinity of the srn CWA. Environment will be moisture rich during
this time...and with prolonged mid layer ageostrophic lift generous
rainfall accumulations could be realized along and south of I-80 by
events end early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Pcpn chances are pretty much in place through the majority of the
extended periods. Beginning Friday night a lifting warm front in
conjunction with llvl jet/strong theta-E advection is progged to
induce TSRA over the CWA. Passing vort max helps displace best
moisture/forcing just a bit to the east then on Saturday.
Thereafter...confidence pertaining to pcpn chance is low at best.
Therefore will maintain token POPs the remainder of the fcst pd.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Lingering storms around KOMA and KLNK with MVFR cigs and vsby through
08z then becoming VFR as cold front pushes into the area through
12z. Front just past KOFK at 06z but weak push with light north to
northwest winds behind the front.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Fobert

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
446 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241200-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
446 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 10 PM. ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW COUNCIL BLUFFS    41.30N 95.90W
08/23/2016  M65.00 MPH       DOUGLAS            NE   ASOS

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1038 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW COUNCIL BLUFFS    41.27N 95.88W
08/23/2016  M73 MPH          POTTAWATTAMIE      IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCH DIAMETER TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1048 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     FLOOD            2 E OMAHA               41.26N 95.98W
08/23/2016                   DOUGLAS            NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER ROADWAY AT SADDLECREEK AND DAVENPORT.

&&

VDEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1108 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ051-053-066>068-240500-
FREMONT IA-PAGE IA-MILLS IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-MONTGOMERY IA-CASS NE-
LANCASTER NE-OTOE NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
1108 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY...FREMONT...
NORTHWESTERN PAGE...MILLS...SOUTH CENTRAL POTTAWATTAMIE...CASS...
SOUTHERN SARPY...SOUTHEASTERN SAUNDERS...NORTHERN OTOE AND CENTRAL
LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1107 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF RED OAK TO 7 MILES EAST
OF UNION TO 5 MILES NORTH OF HICKMAN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...BELLEVUE...NEBRASKA CITY...PLATTSMOUTH...RED OAK...
GLENWOOD...SHENANDOAH...WAVERLY...SYRACUSE...SPRINGFIELD...MALVERN...
SIDNEY...LOUISVILLE...WEEPING WATER...ESSEX...BENNET...STANTON...
ELMWOOD...GREENWOOD AND PALMYRA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 2 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 466 AND 504...AND NEAR
MILE MARKER 508.
 HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 42.
 HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 37.
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 51 AND 82.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 54 AND 71...AND NEAR
MILEMARKER 77.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 42.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 395 AND 426.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 9492 4066 9547 4066 9684 4087 9680
      4117 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 291DEG 33KT 4108 9522 4085 9578 4071 9666

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FREMONT                 41.44N 96.49W
08/23/2016                   DODGE              NE   STORM CHASER

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

VDEWALD

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