Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Question whether thunderstorms will redevelop late this
afternoon/evening is initial concern...followed by pcpn chances in
the rest of the near term periods. Anticipated severe weather
threat not looking all that good at the moment. Recent sfc obs
reveal little in the way depicting a warm front upon which the
last several runs of the RAP13 has been advertising convection
would erupt. Current 88D mosaic is showing isolated cells over
nern KS and well as a few within our IA CWA...but it appears now
the threat for scattered TSRA development within the CWA has
diminished significantly with focus for convection more to the
north associated with potent vort max lifting into srn MN.
However...trend over the last hour has been CU field organizing
along with cluster of cells invof the srn CWA. Will therefore
focus evening POPs south...then the rest of tonight carry token
20s tonight with focus mainly over the ern CWA.

In regards to pcpn activity Wednesday afternoon/night...a cold front
dropping through the CWA will slow and become near stationary in the
vicinity of the srn CWA. Environment will be moisture rich during
this time...and with prolonged mid layer ageostrophic lift generous
rainfall accumulations could be realized along and south of I-80 by
events end early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Pcpn chances are pretty much in place through the majority of the
extended periods. Beginning Friday night a lifting warm front in
conjunction with llvl jet/strong theta-E advection is progged to
induce TSRA over the CWA. Passing vort max helps displace best
moisture/forcing just a bit to the east then on Saturday.
Thereafter...confidence pertaining to pcpn chance is low at best.
Therefore will maintain token POPs the remainder of the fcst pd.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

MVFR ceilings continue to work through the TAF sites this morning,
but these will likely scatter this afternoon and lift to near or
above 3000 feet. Have removed all mention of rain/thunder from the
TAF forecast due to uncertainty in redevelopment this afternoon,
and expected isolated nature if anything does occur. Surface cold
front will move through all 3 TAF sites overnight and switch the
winds to the northwest. We may see some additional MVFR ceilings
overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Boustead

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
446 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241200-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
446 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 10 PM. ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
611 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ069-NEZ052-232330-
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-DOUGLAS NE-
611 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 611 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHEASTERN OMAHA...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...NORTHWESTERN COUNCIL BLUFFS...RALSTON...CARTER LAKE...
BENNINGTON...BOYS TOWN AND NARROWS RIVER PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 88 AND 99.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 61.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 1.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 446 AND 454.

LAT...LON 4119 9593 4123 9622 4139 9615 4139 9592
      4129 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 202DEG 43KT 4126 9601

DEWALD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
652 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ043-NEZ015-240015-
MONONA IA-THURSTON NE-
652 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONONA AND CENTRAL
THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 652 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WINNEBAGO...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALTHILL...WINNEBAGO AND MACY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 159 AND 171.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 157 AND 169.

LAT...LON 4227 9648 4227 9635 4226 9633 4223 9632
      4222 9633 4221 9624 4204 9644 4214 9664
      4228 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 216DEG 15KT 4222 9643

DEWALD