Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Question whether thunderstorms will redevelop late this
afternoon/evening is initial concern...followed by pcpn chances in
the rest of the near term periods. Anticipated severe weather
threat not looking all that good at the moment. Recent sfc obs
reveal little in the way depicting a warm front upon which the
last several runs of the RAP13 has been advertising convection
would erupt. Current 88D mosaic is showing isolated cells over
nern KS and well as a few within our IA CWA...but it appears now
the threat for scattered TSRA development within the CWA has
diminished significantly with focus for convection more to the
north associated with potent vort max lifting into srn MN.
However...trend over the last hour has been CU field organizing
along with cluster of cells invof the srn CWA. Will therefore
focus evening POPs south...then the rest of tonight carry token
20s tonight with focus mainly over the ern CWA.

In regards to pcpn activity Wednesday afternoon/night...a cold front
dropping through the CWA will slow and become near stationary in the
vicinity of the srn CWA. Environment will be moisture rich during
this time...and with prolonged mid layer ageostrophic lift generous
rainfall accumulations could be realized along and south of I-80 by
events end early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Pcpn chances are pretty much in place through the majority of the
extended periods. Beginning Friday night a lifting warm front in
conjunction with llvl jet/strong theta-E advection is progged to
induce TSRA over the CWA. Passing vort max helps displace best
moisture/forcing just a bit to the east then on Saturday.
Thereafter...confidence pertaining to pcpn chance is low at best.
Therefore will maintain token POPs the remainder of the fcst pd.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

MVFR ceilings continue to work through the TAF sites this morning,
but these will likely scatter this afternoon and lift to near or
above 3000 feet. Have removed all mention of rain/thunder from the
TAF forecast due to uncertainty in redevelopment this afternoon,
and expected isolated nature if anything does occur. Surface cold
front will move through all 3 TAF sites overnight and switch the
winds to the northwest. We may see some additional MVFR ceilings
overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Boustead

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
446 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241200-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
446 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 10 PM. ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
913 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     TSTM WND GST     FREMONT                 41.44N 96.49W
08/23/2016  E60 MPH          DODGE              NE   STORM CHASER

            ANOTHER SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED A FEW BRANCHES DOWN IN
            FREMONT.

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
923 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND GST     FREMONT                 41.44N 96.49W
08/23/2016  E70 MPH          DODGE              NE   STORM CHASER

            TREE LIMBS ALSO BLOWN DOWN.

&&

VDEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
926 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

NEZ051>053-240315-
DOUGLAS NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
926 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS...WESTERN SARPY AND EAST
CENTRAL SAUNDERS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 925 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF ELKHORN TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
MEAD. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...GRETNA...VALLEY...YUTAN...WATERLOO...MEAD...ELKHORN...
MILLARD...BENNINGTON...BOYS TOWN...ITHACA...LESHARA...
TWO RIVERS STATE RECREATION AREA...KOA CAMPGROUND AND CHALCO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA NEAR MILE MARKER 167.
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA NEAR MILE MARKER 99.
 HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 459 AND 466.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 430 AND 440...AND NEAR
MILE MARKER 446.

LAT...LON 4138 9596 4104 9623 4115 9654 4138 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 265DEG 21KT 4138 9623 4116 9647

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
941 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BLAIR                   41.54N 96.14W
08/23/2016                   WASHINGTON         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN AND AROUND BLAIR. HIGHWAY 133 IS
            CLOSED NEAR HIGHWAY 30. COUNTY ROADS P29 AND P26 ALSO ARE
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

VDEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ055-069-NEZ044-045-051>053-067-240330-
HARRISON IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-CASS NE-
WASHINGTON NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HARRISON...WESTERN
POTTAWATTAMIE...DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...NORTHEASTERN CASS...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SARPY AND EASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030
PM CDT...

AT 945 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF MISSOURI VALLEY TO NEAR
ASHLAND. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...FREMONT...PAPILLION...LA VISTA...
BLAIR...RALSTON...GRETNA...MISSOURI VALLEY...VALLEY...LOGAN...
SPRINGFIELD...ARLINGTON...YUTAN...FORT CALHOUN...WATERLOO...MEAD...
KENNARD AND INGLEWOOD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 167.
 HIGHWAY 30 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.
 HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 423 AND 450.
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND 117.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 104 AND 117.
 HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 456 AND 466.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 82.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 3.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 430 AND 454.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 9558 4106 9596 4107 9643 4146 9658
      4167 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 263DEG 24KT 4156 9582 4107 9633

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
957 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

NEZ033-240330-
CUMING NE-
957 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUMING AND
SOUTHWESTERN BURT COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 957 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT...OR 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST POINT.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND
123.

LAT...LON 4192 9657 4179 9655 4175 9656 4175 9682
      4188 9687
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 263DEG 24KT 4177 9672

DEWALD