Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Thunderstorms continued to form along a strong theta-e (85-70H)
gradient across southern Minnesota overnight. Although most of the
thunderstorms were sub-severe, a few produced up to one inch hail,
but the majority of the hail stones were dime to nickel size. The
strong theta-e advection will slowly subside this morning as the low
level jet veers to the east-southeast and weakens. This will lead to
the thunderstorm chances diminishing to a very low probability by
noon. Additional thunderstorms will still be possible in far
southeast/south central Minnesota as well as portions of east
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin this afternoon. Further
to the west, the cap will strengthen leading to a very muggy day as
temperatures rise into the 80s and lower 90s. Afternoon heat indices
in western Minnesota will approach 95 degrees during the afternoon.

Not much change overnight as the strong cap will hinder thunderstorm
development across southern Minnesota. However, this cap weakens
considerably in central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin, which
will lead to a continued threat of additional thunderstorms this
evening and overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Friday...Potent warm front will lift north across the area during
the day Friday, leading to another surge of warm air but also
moist deep South air into the region. Highs will push into the
upper 80s to mid 90s for much of the coverage area. With dewpoints
expected to climb to the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values
to increase to near 100 Friday afternoon. However, this scenario
will develop in conjunction with a flattening upper level ridge
while a potent shortwave trough axis rounds the western periphery
of an eastern Canadian upper level low. This trough dropping
through Manitoba and western Ontario will work with a surface low
over western Ontario to enhance lift. While some storms may be
ongoing early in the day, the thinking is that some partial
clearing behind the warm front will allow for added instability
for later in the day. Storms are then expected to develop late
afternoon in the Dakotas, specifically near the Fargo area, which
may then drive southeastward behind the warm front across central
and southeastern Minnesota into southwestern Wisconsin. Still some
uncertainty in the development of a MCS but there is enough
confidence to warrant a Slight Risk for much of the coverage area
in the Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook.

Saturday...Another large-scale ridge will develop across the
central United States Saturday and Saturday night, mitigating any
storm development. In addition, the cold front associated with the
aforementioned warm front will drop through the region by daybreak
Saturday morning, resulting in a more stable airmass for the
area. Highs will still run warm, into the upper 80s to lower 90s,
and heat index values into the 95 to 98 degree range. Despite the
instability in place, strong capping aloft will prevent convection
from developing so a dry day is expected.

Sunday through Wednesday...A more unsettled pattern is expected
for the first half of next week as a large trough moves onshore
the western United States and slowly evolves to a cutoff low in
the 4-Corners region. Prevailing SW to NE flow over the area
followed by the upper low moving into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley region will spell periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms over much of the first half of next week. Still a
bit early to pin down any one day over another so have capped
precipitation chances in the 40s percent at this time.
Temperatures will go on a gradual cooling trend as the upper low
moves towards and over the region, bumping highs back down into
the 70s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Confidence remains high through 18z that thunderstorms in eastern
Minnesota will weaken and dissipate between 12-15z with VFR
conditions and a east-southeast wind of 5 to 15 kts continuing.
Confidence on redevelopment of tsra this afternoon remains low in
Minnesota, but higher in western Wisconsin. Confidence on
redevelopment is associated with the amount of instability and if
a strong cap breaks this afternoon.

KMSP...

Confidence is high that thunderstorms will hold near the airport
through 1330z, with vsbys as low as 2sm for a 15 min period.
However, predominately it should remain VFR. The main forecast
concern this afternoon is with redevelopment. Later shifts will
need to evaluate local boundaries and the amount of instability
and if thunderstorms can develop. Winds will hold from the east-
southeast around 10 kts through most of the taf period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. Winds N-NE 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. CHC TSRA late. Winds SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
340 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
340 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN THE
UPPER 80S AND UPPER 90S. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT
ILLNESSES FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES. THERE IS AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
517 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 AM     HAIL             1 S VICTORIA            44.85N 93.66W
06/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       CARVER             MN   COCORAHS

            .

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
519 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 AM     HAIL             1 SSW CHANHASSEN        44.85N 93.56W
06/09/2016  E0.50 INCH       CARVER             MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DIME-SIZED HAIL FOR A COUPLE MINUTES AT THE
            NWS OFFICE.

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     HAIL             3 NW WATERTOWN          44.99N 93.90W
06/09/2016  E2.50 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   PUBLIC

            TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORTED VIA
            TWITTER. TIME ESTIMATED. .

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW WATERTOWN          44.99N 93.90W
06/09/2016                   WRIGHT             MN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON RESIDENCE. TIME ESTIMATED.
            REPORTED VIA TWITTER.

&&

MARGRAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHASKA                  44.82N 93.60W
06/09/2016                   CARVER             MN   PUBLIC

            3 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. SMALL HAIL ALSO
            REPORTED. RECEIVED VIA FACEBOOK. TIME WAS
            ESTIMATED. .

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
752 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ060-069-070-091315-
SCOTT-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-
752 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN...
NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND WESTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES...

AT 752 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BURNSVILLE...OR
14 MILES SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLOOMINGTON...EAGAN...EDEN PRAIRIE...BURNSVILLE...LAKEVILLE...APPLE
VALLEY...EDINA...SHAKOPEE...RICHFIELD...INVER GROVE HEIGHTS...SAVAGE AND
CHANHASSEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND 88.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 124.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 162.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4453 9317 4477 9354 4480 9355 4481 9352
      4486 9352 4488 9348 4490 9334 4475 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 305DEG 25KT 4475 9327