Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
957 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Thunderstorm activity is beginning to tick upward a bit in
organization and intensity, particularly from around Willmar
southeastward to Mankato and Albert Lea. A slow moving front
located from South Dakota eastward to far southwestern Minnesota
and western Iowa will continue to be the focus for additional
development overnight. PWATs have increased to 1.5 inches across
south central and southwestern MN, with the tight gradient now
aligned along I-94 west of the Twin Cities and along the
Mississippi River east of the Twin Cities. Understandably, there
has been very little or no activity north of that gradient.
Elevated instability accompanies the deeper moisture with up to
750 J/KG MUCAPE.

The ongoing convection may limit the northward progress of the
front tonight. This would increase the threat for locally heavy
rain and flash flooding along the Minnesota River where storms are
currently located and will likely be located for several more
hours. 850 mb moisture transport is not too impressive yet, but
with the LLJ strengthening overnight it should facilitate a
continuation of thunderstorm growth. Some locations have received
over 2 inches of rain in narrow corridors from Redwood Falls to
New Ulm and Mountain Lake to Blue Earth. If these locations see
more heavy rain, will need to watch for flash flooding. Otherwise,
it appears the heavy rain is transient and localized enough to
preclude a Flash Flood Watch for now. However, if convection
continues to organize and develop further, portions of south
central and southwestern MN may need a headline overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms in western MN this afternoon are
slowly working eastward with time.  Strong theta-e advection across
that area is aiding in providing enough lift to tap into elevated
instability and produce scattered thunderstorm activity.  This area
will likely expand as a low level jet evident at 850mb increases
after dark.  Hence, increased pops across the board with likely pops
moving through.  With confidence increasing in the expansive
precipitation area later, upped QPF values to near 0.5", much needed
rain for many.  Thunderstorms are generally expected to be sub-
severe and remain elevated tonight.  We could see small hail in some
of the stronger cores, so that and lightning are the threats for
folks outside.

We could see fog form overnight across portions of the forecast
area, but at this time confidence in the extent and density is low
so left it out of the official forecast.

For tomorrow we see the pattern change continue with southwesterly
low level winds and the hot upper ridge beginning to build in.  Dew
points will be on the rise as well, so this will be the beginning of
a bit of a hot and muggy stretch to finish out the week and head
into this weekend.  Dew points will rise into the mid and upper 60s
by tomorrow afternoon, so it will feel quite a bit different outside
24 hours from now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

The ridge builds in across the Upper Mississippi River Valley
Thursday night into Friday and a warm front lifts north across the
area. South of the front, which should be most of southern MN and
west central WI, we expect upper 80s to mid 90s for highs to go
along with dewpoints that climb well into the 60s. We wouldn't
surprised to see a few locations hit 70 for a dewpoint. The
biggest question on Friday is just how far north does the warm
front set up, because along and north of this boundary, there will
be a chance for thunderstorms. At this time, this looks to be more
like northern MN during the day Friday, but the front should sag
southward during the evening and pull the CAPE/moisture gradient
south. If this happens, then most of the forecast is at risk to
see a cluster of showers and storms late in the day on Friday
along the instability gradient. We have added pops to the forecast
to account for this threat. The GFS/ECMWF are more consistent with
this thinking than they have been in previous runs. Saturday is
trending a bit warmer than the past couple runs and the break
down of the upper ridge still looks to take place Monday and
Tuesday and bring another 1-2 rounds of showers and storms.
Overall, the heat remains, but the threat for rain looks better
over the next few days than what we were previously thinking.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

A band of scattered thunderstorms from just south of KAXN to KRWF
and KMKT is slowly lifting north with a warm front early this
evening. Think they will begin to reach the vicinity of KMSP
around 02Z, KSTC around 03Z, KRNH around 04Z, and KEAU after
06-07Z. They should continue most of the night, gradually focusing
more into Wisconsin later tonight. Brief IFR conditions are
possible with any of the storms. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
and light southeast winds.

KMSP...Best chance for TSRA will be from mid evening to the early
overnight, but they could linger beyond 08Z. A couple outflow
boundaries are lifting north into the southwestern metro area, and
winds may briefly turn south or southwest if they push past the
terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC TSRA late. Winds S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds NE 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. CHC TSRA late. Winds SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
092045-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
345 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HEAT INDICES OF 90 TO 95 DEGREES THURSDAY, AND 95 TO
100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS WILL
INCREASE FOR PEOPLE OUTDOORS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             BELVIEW                 44.61N 95.33W
06/08/2016  E0.88 INCH       REDWOOD            MN   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             MORGAN                  44.42N 94.93W
06/08/2016  M0.88 INCH       REDWOOD            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAILED ABOUT TEN MINUTES. NEARLY HALF THE
            GROUND COVERED.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
649 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             BUTTERFIELD             43.96N 94.79W
06/08/2016  U0.50 INCH       WATONWAN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
649 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

MNZ082-091-090030-
MARTIN-WATONWAN-
649 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WATONWAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES...

AT 649 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BUTTERFIELD...OR
18 MILES EAST OF WINDOM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JAMES...TRUMAN...BUTTERFIELD...LEWISVILLE...SOUTH BRANCH...ORMSBY...
ODIN...ECHOLS AND ST JAMES AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4391 9486 4404 9482 4398 9437 4395 9436
      4373 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 286DEG 15KT 4394 9477

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
755 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

MNZ057-090130-
KANDIYOHI-
755 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL KANDIYOHI COUNTY...

AT 755 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PENNOCK...OR 9
MILES WEST OF WILLMAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLMAR AROUND 825 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PENNOCK...WILLMAR
AIRPORT AND PRIAM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 64 AND 74.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 129.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4520 9496 4503 9512 4512 9525 4524 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 292DEG 12KT 4517 9522

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

MNZ057-058-090430-
MEEKER-KANDIYOHI-
1046 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MEEKER AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANDIYOHI COUNTIES...

AT 1046 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE LILLIAN...
OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILLMAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COSMOS...LAKE LILLIAN...THORPE AND SVEA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4512 9495 4499 9456 4489 9466 4489 9481
      4499 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 295DEG 21KT 4501 9491

BORGHOFF