Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1149 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Thunderstorm activity is beginning to tick upward a bit in
organization and intensity, particularly from around Willmar
southeastward to Mankato and Albert Lea. A slow moving front
located from South Dakota eastward to far southwestern Minnesota
and western Iowa will continue to be the focus for additional
development overnight. PWATs have increased to 1.5 inches across
south central and southwestern MN, with the tight gradient now
aligned along I-94 west of the Twin Cities and along the
Mississippi River east of the Twin Cities. Understandably, there
has been very little or no activity north of that gradient.
Elevated instability accompanies the deeper moisture with up to
750 J/KG MUCAPE.

The ongoing convection may limit the northward progress of the
front tonight. This would increase the threat for locally heavy
rain and flash flooding along the Minnesota River where storms are
currently located and will likely be located for several more
hours. 850 mb moisture transport is not too impressive yet, but
with the LLJ strengthening overnight it should facilitate a
continuation of thunderstorm growth. Some locations have received
over 2 inches of rain in narrow corridors from Redwood Falls to
New Ulm and Mountain Lake to Blue Earth. If these locations see
more heavy rain, will need to watch for flash flooding. Otherwise,
it appears the heavy rain is transient and localized enough to
preclude a Flash Flood Watch for now. However, if convection
continues to organize and develop further, portions of south
central and southwestern MN may need a headline overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms in western MN this afternoon are
slowly working eastward with time.  Strong theta-e advection across
that area is aiding in providing enough lift to tap into elevated
instability and produce scattered thunderstorm activity.  This area
will likely expand as a low level jet evident at 850mb increases
after dark.  Hence, increased pops across the board with likely pops
moving through.  With confidence increasing in the expansive
precipitation area later, upped QPF values to near 0.5", much needed
rain for many.  Thunderstorms are generally expected to be sub-
severe and remain elevated tonight.  We could see small hail in some
of the stronger cores, so that and lightning are the threats for
folks outside.

We could see fog form overnight across portions of the forecast
area, but at this time confidence in the extent and density is low
so left it out of the official forecast.

For tomorrow we see the pattern change continue with southwesterly
low level winds and the hot upper ridge beginning to build in.  Dew
points will be on the rise as well, so this will be the beginning of
a bit of a hot and muggy stretch to finish out the week and head
into this weekend.  Dew points will rise into the mid and upper 60s
by tomorrow afternoon, so it will feel quite a bit different outside
24 hours from now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

The ridge builds in across the Upper Mississippi River Valley
Thursday night into Friday and a warm front lifts north across the
area. South of the front, which should be most of southern MN and
west central WI, we expect upper 80s to mid 90s for highs to go
along with dewpoints that climb well into the 60s. We wouldn't
surprised to see a few locations hit 70 for a dewpoint. The
biggest question on Friday is just how far north does the warm
front set up, because along and north of this boundary, there will
be a chance for thunderstorms. At this time, this looks to be more
like northern MN during the day Friday, but the front should sag
southward during the evening and pull the CAPE/moisture gradient
south. If this happens, then most of the forecast is at risk to
see a cluster of showers and storms late in the day on Friday
along the instability gradient. We have added pops to the forecast
to account for this threat. The GFS/ECMWF are more consistent with
this thinking than they have been in previous runs. Saturday is
trending a bit warmer than the past couple runs and the break
down of the upper ridge still looks to take place Monday and
Tuesday and bring another 1-2 rounds of showers and storms.
Overall, the heat remains, but the threat for rain looks better
over the next few days than what we were previously thinking.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across central and
southern Minnesota late this evening. These will continue working
slowly eastward overnight, eventually reaching KRNH and KEAU. Brief
IFR conditions are possible with any of the storms. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the period.

KMSP...On and off showers with a few thunderstorms expected for
much of the overnight before diminishing around daybreak.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC TSRA late. Winds S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds NE 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. CHC TSRA late. Winds SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
340 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
340 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN THE
UPPER 80S AND UPPER 90S. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT
ILLNESSES FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES. THERE IS AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
214 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ060-068-069-090800-
SCOTT-CARVER-HENNEPIN-
214 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CARVER...SOUTHERN
HENNEPIN AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 213 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHASKA...OR 20
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLOOMINGTON...EDEN PRAIRIE...BURNSVILLE...MINNETONKA...EDINA...SHAKOPEE...
RICHFIELD...SAVAGE...CHASKA...CHANHASSEN...PRIOR LAKE AND VICTORIA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 124.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 142 AND 162.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4477 9372 4490 9367 4489 9326 4479 9331
      4479 9333 4475 9332 4467 9336
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 286DEG 17KT 4483 9364

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
218 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 AM     HAIL             2 WSW VICTORIA          44.86N 93.69W
06/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       CARVER             MN   COCORAHS

            .

&&

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ060-069-070-090945-
SCOTT-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-
246 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

SCOTT...DAKOTA...HENNEPIN...

AT 245 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS OVER EDEN PRAIRIE...SHAKOPEE AND BURNSVILLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...EAGAN...EDEN PRAIRIE...BURNSVILLE...LAKEVILLE...
MINNETONKA...APPLE VALLEY...EDINA...SHAKOPEE...RICHFIELD AND SAVAGE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 85 AND 88.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 125.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 154 AND 162.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4472 9357 4480 9355 4481 9352 4490 9353
      4490 9319 4489 9318 4489 9315 4467 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 180DEG 0KT 4482 9344

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ060-069-070-090845-
SCOTT-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-
257 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN...
NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES...

AT 257 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FLYING CLOUD
AIRPORT...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL...BLOOMINGTON...EAGAN...EDEN PRAIRIE...BURNSVILLE...
LAKEVILLE...MINNETONKA...APPLE VALLEY...EDINA...SHAKOPEE AND RICHFIELD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 88.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 124.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 162.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4474 9348 4489 9350 4491 9320 4489 9318
      4492 9313 4492 9309 4469 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 269DEG 16KT 4481 9341

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ066-068-090915-
CARVER-MCLEOD-
328 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCLEOD AND
NORTHWESTERN CARVER COUNTIES...

AT 328 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SILVER LAKE...OR
12 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINSTED...MAYER...LESTER PRAIRIE...HOLLYWOOD AND NEW GERMANY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4488 9418 4498 9418 4498 9388 4497 9387
      4486 9389
TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 269DEG 16KT 4496 9415

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
340 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

MNZ063-070-090930-
WASHINGTON-DAKOTA-
340 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
CENTRAL DAKOTA COUNTIES...

AT 339 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER APPLE VALLEY...
OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF ST. PAUL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGAN...LAKEVILLE...APPLE VALLEY...COTTAGE GROVE...INVER GROVE HEIGHTS...
ROSEMOUNT...VERMILLION...COATES AND GREY CLOUD TOWNSHIP.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 123.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4471 9325 4482 9322 4481 9288 4466 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 280DEG 19KT 4477 9320

JLT