Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Memphis, TN

093 
WWUS54 KMEG 292328
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

MSC013-292337-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-161129T2345Z/
CALHOUN MS-
528 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3407 8914 3407 8915 3413 8915 3424 8883
      3396 8882 3395 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 249DEG 38KT 3403 8906 

$$

MSC017-115-292345-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-161129T2345Z/
PONTOTOC MS-CHICKASAW MS-
528 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PONTOTOC AND NORTHERN CHICKASAW COUNTIES...

AT 527 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HOULKA...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF HOUSTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOULKA...TROY...NEW HOULKA...ALGOMA...PARKERSBURG...CHIWAPA...
WALLFIELD...THELMA AND VAN VLEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
STORM SHELTER OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3407 8914 3407 8915 3413 8915 3424 8883
      3396 8882 3395 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 249DEG 38KT 3403 8906 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
216 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Moderate risk of severe weather over parts of North
Mississippi...

Currently...Monitoring for potential severe weather this evening.
Warm front continues to lift north with lower 60s dewpoints
beginning to push into northern MS. Meanwhile a potent shortwave
over Texas is rotating around the main Central U.S. upper trough.
This is spreading lift across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The
associated cold front is pushing east into the Arklatex at this
time. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop to the south of our
region.

Late this afternoon into Tonight...Increasingly concerned about
the possibility of significant severe weather across Nortehast
Mississippi. As the warm front lifts into North Mississippi and
the cold front approaches from the west a surface wave develops
over Western Mississippi early this evening and tracks NE across
North Mississippi. MLCAPES of 500-1000 j/kg work into NE
Mississippi as the moist and unstable airmass moves north ahead
of the wave. Hodographs are strongly curved with 0-1km helicity
values above 300 m2/s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear values greater than
70 kts. We are most concerned about this evening since discrete
supercells are possible as the surface wave moves through. Attm it
appears the best chance of a strong tornado or two will be across
Northeast Mississippi from about 6 pm to 11 pm. Damaging winds and
hail are also threats. Parts of North Mississippi have been
upgraded to a moderate risk. By about midnight the convection will
probably be organized into a line with an isolated severe threat
until about 3 am across Northeast Mississippi. Most of the
lingering activity should end by sunrise.

Wednesday through Friday...Cold front pushes east and a cooler
and drier airmass filters in. Expect seasonably cool temps with
highs in the 50s and lows in 30s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Models still having some trouble during
this time frame as an upper low cuts off over Mexico. Looks like
a couple good chances for rain. First one as a trough moves
through this weekend and another as that upper low ejects east
early next week. Subsequent forecasts will drill down on the
details over the next few days but the overall summary is cool and
wet.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through most of the forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region starting
late this afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible especially over portions of
northeast Mississippi this evening. IFR ceilings are expected to
move into northeast Mississippi tonight as well. Winds will be
mainly from the south at around 10 knots with some higher gusts
during the afternoon hours.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
312 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-302315-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
312 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FOR TONIGHT...ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO BOONEVILLE...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF TUPELO. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE.

A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM 5 PM CST TO 11 PM CST IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT AND END BY 3 AM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

SJM