Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Memphis, TN

980 
WWUS54 KMEG 292153
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

MSC135-161-292215-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-161129T2215Z/
TALLAHATCHIE MS-YALOBUSHA MS-
353 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE AND SOUTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...

AT 352 PM CST... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MINTER CITY...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHARLESTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...PAYNES...SCOBEY...SUNNYSIDE...GLENDORA...LEVERETT...
ROSEBLOOM...DISTALL...SWAN LAKE...TIPPO...TILLATOBA...EFFIE...
WHITEHEAD AND CASCILLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3370 9030 3375 9030 3377 9018 3378 9017
      3381 9019 3381 9045 3383 9045 3413 8990
      3387 8968 3387 8977 3390 8977 3390 8992
      3382 8993 3382 8998 3381 8998 3381 9013
      3372 9014 3374 9025 3369 9028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 239DEG 52KT 3383 9019 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
216 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Moderate risk of severe weather over parts of North
Mississippi...

Currently...Monitoring for potential severe weather this evening.
Warm front continues to lift north with lower 60s dewpoints
beginning to push into northern MS. Meanwhile a potent shortwave
over Texas is rotating around the main Central U.S. upper trough.
This is spreading lift across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The
associated cold front is pushing east into the Arklatex at this
time. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop to the south of our
region.

Late this afternoon into Tonight...Increasingly concerned about
the possibility of significant severe weather across Nortehast
Mississippi. As the warm front lifts into North Mississippi and
the cold front approaches from the west a surface wave develops
over Western Mississippi early this evening and tracks NE across
North Mississippi. MLCAPES of 500-1000 j/kg work into NE
Mississippi as the moist and unstable airmass moves north ahead
of the wave. Hodographs are strongly curved with 0-1km helicity
values above 300 m2/s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear values greater than
70 kts. We are most concerned about this evening since discrete
supercells are possible as the surface wave moves through. Attm it
appears the best chance of a strong tornado or two will be across
Northeast Mississippi from about 6 pm to 11 pm. Damaging winds and
hail are also threats. Parts of North Mississippi have been
upgraded to a moderate risk. By about midnight the convection will
probably be organized into a line with an isolated severe threat
until about 3 am across Northeast Mississippi. Most of the
lingering activity should end by sunrise.

Wednesday through Friday...Cold front pushes east and a cooler
and drier airmass filters in. Expect seasonably cool temps with
highs in the 50s and lows in 30s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Models still having some trouble during
this time frame as an upper low cuts off over Mexico. Looks like
a couple good chances for rain. First one as a trough moves
through this weekend and another as that upper low ejects east
early next week. Subsequent forecasts will drill down on the
details over the next few days but the overall summary is cool and
wet.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through most of the forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region starting
late this afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible especially over portions of
northeast Mississippi this evening. IFR ceilings are expected to
move into northeast Mississippi tonight as well. Winds will be
mainly from the south at around 10 knots with some higher gusts
during the afternoon hours.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
312 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-302315-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
312 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FOR TONIGHT...ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO BOONEVILLE...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF TUPELO. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE.

A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM 5 PM CST TO 11 PM CST IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT AND END BY 3 AM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

SJM