Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

193 
WWUS54 KMAF 180606
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
106 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

TXC383-461-180630-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-160918T0630Z/
UPTON TX-REAGAN TX-
106 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN UPTON AND SOUTHWESTERN REAGAN COUNTIES...

AT 106 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
RANKIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANKIN...TEXON AND BEST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10220 3122 10212 3137 10205 3119 10147
      3108 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 291DEG 24KT 3113 10189 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

29

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Will keep an eye on a few
thunderstorms north of KFST the next couple but dont think they
will impact that terminal. Will continue to monitor. Winds will
generally be south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph through the period.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1023 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

UPDATE...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 482 until 200 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms continue to develop in a moderately unstable
airmass over the Permian Basin. The presence of at least 2
supercells indicate shear and instability are good enough
for organized convection to continue into the wee hours of the
morning, with large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding possible. Will send another ZFP to
include the new Watch.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and large hail are possible
across all terminals through this evening. Possible MVFR ceilings
and visibilities for HOB; otherwise, VFR conditions. Winds will be
light out of a generally southerly direction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

One more punch from the passing 3h jet today is expected to
result/aid in the development of tstms, some severe with heavy rain.
Today tstm initiation is favored to be in SE NM and the Trans Pecos
Mtns/Wrn PB in closer proximity to said jet/where mid level lapse
rates are steepest and where there are less clouds/more insolation,
respectively. A surface boundary is still around too and looks to
have lifted back n of I-20 (winds are back to the SE at MAF). Meanwhile
a second boundary assocd with tstms to the N-NE of CWFA earlier
was moving SW and may merge with said boundary. Finally a
3rd boundary is moving w into the SE PB. 12Z MAF sounding reveals
deep mstr and plenty of available energy. A 21Z forecast of the
MAF sounding does reveal ML CAPE of 2800 J/KG and 45kts of 0-6km
bulk shear with no CINH (89/66) supportive of at least a few
severe storms. As storms develop in the said favored areas around
21Z they are likely to track E, possibly SE (in the eventual form
an MCS?) into the low level moist axis within a region of upper
divergence (RRQ of 3h 70-80kt jet). Forecast has chance/scattered
PoPs across most of the area and seems reasonable. Based on latest
high resolution model data will opt to increase PoPs from INVOF
Davis Mtns into at least the wrn PB and expand the mention of
severe wording too. Some of the data (GFS) holds precip after 06Z,
but we tend to prefer scenario of lower PoPs after 06Z like that
of the NAM12. Mid level ridge starts to build in Sunday, but while
doing so mid level flow will briefly become NW and there could be
an isold pocket of convection across the PB late Sunday PM as SB
instability may focus within a small area of high theta-e air at
the surface. Isold-sct tstms INVOF Davis Mtns is more likely. All
of the MOS guidance is eager to increase high temps starting
Sunday thru Monday, especially from I-20 swd with highs back into
the M90s. The ridge will be strongest Monday/Tuesday but models
still show a SE mid level wind advecting in cooler mid level
temps, so Sunday/Monday will probably be the hottest days, but
Tuesday will still be above normal with the possibility of a cold
front next weekend. Otherwise forecast will be mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  93  71 /  30  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  65  91  64 /  30  30  10   0
Dryden                         94  72  95  72 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  64  85  66 /  30  30  10  10
Hobbs                          83  64  88  64 /  50  40  10   0
Marfa                          85  62  87  62 /  40  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  94  70 /  30  40  10  10
Odessa                         89  69  94  70 /  30  40  10  10
Wink                           92  69  95  69 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 /1244 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1027 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ079-080-180415-
MARFA PLATEAU TX-PRESIDIO VALLEY TX-
1027 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1027 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF CANDELARIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANDELARIA.

LAT...LON 3042 10478 3024 10440 3002 10458 3011 10469
      3018 10469 3022 10471 3023 10471 3026 10473
      3026 10475 3030 10476 3035 10482 3036 10481
      3037 10482
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 305DEG 16KT 3031 10477

80

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1045 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ059>061-067-068-180430-
WINKLER TX-WARD TX-ECTOR TX-CRANE TX-LOVING TX-
1045 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRANE...SOUTHERN
WINKLER...SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR...NORTHEASTERN WARD AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1045 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WICKETT...OR 8 MILES WEST OF MONAHANS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONAHANS...WINK...WICKETT...THORNTONVILLE...PYOTE...
WINKLER COUNTY AIRPORT...
MONAHANS SANDHILLS STATE PARK AND ROY HURD MEMORIAL AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 94.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3146 10312 3162 10334 3184 10334 3176 10278
      3144 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 271DEG 33KT 3160 10303

80

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1109 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ063-070-180500-
REAGAN TX-GLASSCOCK TX-
1109 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN REAGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
GLASSCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1109 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF GARDEN
CITY... MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT LAWRENCE AND NORTH REAGAN FIRE STATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3152 10170 3177 10156 3179 10127 3129 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 291DEG 16KT 3158 10144

29

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1113 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ061-062-068-069-180500-
ECTOR TX-CRANE TX-UPTON TX-MIDLAND TX-
1113 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRANE...NORTHWESTERN
UPTON...SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND SOUTHERN ECTOR COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

AT 1112 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENWELL...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST ODESSA...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ODESSA...WEST ODESSA...PENWELL AND PLEASANT FARMS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3179 10185 3126 10209 3175 10278 3186 10253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 284DEG 13KT 3166 10239

29

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1126 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ060-061-067>069-075-180515-
WINKLER TX-WARD TX-ECTOR TX-CRANE TX-UPTON TX-PECOS TX-
1126 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRANE...SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER...
NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...WEST CENTRAL UPTON...SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR AND
EASTERN WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1126 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF ROYALTY...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRANDFALLS...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONAHANS...CRANE...GRANDFALLS...IMPERIAL RESERVOIR...
MONAHANS SANDHILLS STATE PARK...IMPERIAL...ROYALTY...
CRANE COUNTY AIRPORT...KING MOUNTAIN...CORDONA LAKE AND TUBBS CORNER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 94.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3126 10297 3177 10281 3159 10255 3126 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 275DEG 26KT 3148 10267

80

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1211 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

TXZ068>070-180600-
REAGAN TX-CRANE TX-UPTON TX-
1211 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRANE...UPTON AND WESTERN
REAGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1210 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRANE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...MIDKIFF...BEST...STILES...TEXON...
CRANE COUNTY AIRPORT...NORTH REAGAN FIRE STATION...
UPTON COUNTY AIRPORT AND KING MOUNTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3108 10169 3109 10241 3113 10243 3121 10244
      3127 10255 3163 10248 3165 10233 3165 10147
      3164 10142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 280DEG 24KT 3129 10230

29