Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

584 
WWUS54 KMAF 182128
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

TXC043-243-182200-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-160918T2200Z/
BREWSTER TX-JEFF DAVIS TX-
428 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES...

AT 428 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HOVEY...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALPINE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 10378 3064 10377 3062 10337 3041 10338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 274DEG 16KT 3054 10353 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today's thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused from the
Delaware...to Davis...to the Glass Mtns where there's still enough
low level mstr and mid level instability (LRs of 7 C/KM) for the
elevated heat sources to drive convection. Mid level steering flow
is pretty weak across the mtns so a few storms could drift out a
little distance from the mtns. CAPEs are forecast to be over 2000
J/KG but the shear is only around 15kts and this seems to favor
downburst winds and hail. Storms will be diurnally driven and
expect there will be little if any storms left after 03Z. Today's
7h temps will be about a 1.5C warmer than yesterdays and this will
carry over thru Tue with increased presence of the ridge aloft,
although Mon will probably be the hottest of the next few days.
The ridge is still present Wed but heights are lower with SW and W
flow by Thur PM/Fri, respectively. Pretty good model agreement
that a mid latitude cyclone will be e of the front range Fri. An
assocd cold front is likely to move thru Sat evening and low level
mstr will have a brief window to return along/ahead of front Sat
evening and thus a few storms possible across the far e then. Much
drier air will follow the front Sat AM which should set up a
favorable conditions for a cool Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       60  94  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         74  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  96  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  87  66  86 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  92  65  91 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  88  62  87 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  94  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           70  98  70  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 /125 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND
REGIONS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

TXZ074-075-081-182115-
BIG BEND AREA TX-PECOS TX-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
327 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 327 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES WEST OF HOVEY...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF ALPINE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUDA AND HOVEY.

LAT...LON 3054 10376 3070 10364 3073 10313 3021 10339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 287DEG 21KT 3060 10359

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