Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

809 
WWUS54 KMAF 172245
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXC243-389-172315-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-160917T2315Z/
JEFF DAVIS TX-REEVES TX-
545 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES...

AT 544 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TOYAHVALE...OR
20 MILES NORTH OF FORT DAVIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BALMORHEA...BALMORHEA LAKE...TOYAHVALE...BALMORHEA STATE PARK AND
SARAGOSA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 195 AND 217.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3086 10398 3107 10394 3110 10364 3090 10354
      3079 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 320DEG 8KT 3089 10387 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

80

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 480 for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas until 1000 pm CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

One more punch from the passing 3h jet today is expected to
result/aid in the development of tstms, some severe with heavy rain.
Today tstm initiation is favored to be in SE NM and the Trans Pecos
Mtns/Wrn PB in closer proximity to said jet/where mid level lapse
rates are steepest and where there are less clouds/more insolation,
respectively. A surface boundary is still around too and looks to
have lifted back n of I-20 (winds are back to the SE at MAF). Meanwhile
a second boundary assocd with tstms to the N-NE of CWFA earlier
was moving SW and may merge with said boundary. Finally a
3rd boundary is moving w into the SE PB. 12Z MAF sounding reveals
deep mstr and plenty of available energy. A 21Z forecast of the
MAF sounding does reveal ML CAPE of 2800 J/KG and 45kts of 0-6km
bulk shear with no CINH (89/66) supportive of at least a few
severe storms. As storms develop in the said favored areas around
21Z they are likely to track E, possibly SE (in the eventual form
an MCS?) into the low level moist axis within a region of upper
divergence (RRQ of 3h 70-80kt jet). Forecast has chance/scattered
PoPs across most of the area and seems reasonable. Based on latest
high resolution model data will opt to increase PoPs from INVOF
Davis Mtns into at least the wrn PB and expand the mention of
severe wording too. Some of the data (GFS) holds precip after 06Z,
but we tend to prefer scenario of lower PoPs after 06Z like that
of the NAM12. Mid level ridge starts to build in Sunday, but while
doing so mid level flow will briefly become NW and there could be
an isold pocket of convection across the PB late Sunday PM as SB
instability may focus within a small area of high theta-e air at
the surface. Isold-sct tstms INVOF Davis Mtns is more likely. All
of the MOS guidance is eager to increase high temps starting
Sunday thru Monday, especially from I-20 swd with highs back into
the M90s. The ridge will be strongest Monday/Tuesday but models
still show a SE mid level wind advecting in cooler mid level
temps, so Sunday/Monday will probably be the hottest days, but
Tuesday will still be above normal with the possibility of a cold
front next weekend. Otherwise forecast will be mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  93  71 /  30  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  65  91  64 /  30  30  10   0
Dryden                         94  72  95  72 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  64  85  66 /  30  30  10  10
Hobbs                          83  64  88  64 /  50  40  10   0
Marfa                          85  62  87  62 /  40  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  94  70 /  30  40  10  10
Odessa                         89  69  94  70 /  30  40  10  10
Wink                           92  69  95  69 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 /1244 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ058-074-172145-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
354 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 352 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TOYAHVALE...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF FORT DAVIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BALMORHEA...BALMORHEA LAKE...TOYAHVALE...BALMORHEA STATE PARK...
SARAGOSA AND BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT CAMP.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 215.
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3076 10386 3099 10427 3117 10400 3116 10372
      3090 10355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 233DEG 8KT 3087 10386

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