River Flood Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

507 
WGUS84 KMAF 180122
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
822 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
The river stage is cresting on the Rio Grande near Candelaria and
will continue to slowly fall over the next few days. Additional
rain will cause the river to rise again.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The is the last statement that will be issued for this forecast point.

&&

TXC377-180152-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-160918T0830Z/
/CDET2.3.ER.160917T1004Z.160917T1045Z.160917T1502Z.NR/
822 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* At  8PM Saturday the stage was 7.9 feet (2.4 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 10:02 AM Saturday.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 7.8 feet (2.4 meters)
  by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet (2.3 meters), the river reaches bankfull, and 
  no significant damage is expected.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.9 feet (3.3 meters) on 
Sep 7 2016.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sun   Sun   Sun   Sun
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5    7.9   Sat  8 PM   7.9   7.9   7.9   7.8

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sun   Sun   Sun   Sun
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    2.4   Sat  8 PM   2.4   2.4   2.4   2.4

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs are around SE NM this morning and will affect HOB/CNM.
VFR conditions are expected by 18Z and will remain through the end
of the TAF period. TS will develop this afternoon but again
confidence in where and when it will develop is low so have left
out of the present wx for this issuance.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of potential unsettled weather is expected across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico due to a lingering frontal boundary
in the Permian Basin. This front will have the support of a short
wave trough and right rear quadrant of an upper level jet moving
across the central and southern plains. These features will act on a
sheared and unstable atmosphere to produce scattered thunderstorms
today and tonight across the region. Some of the storms are expected
to be strong to possibly severe given 0 to 6 kilometer shear values
of 30 to 40 knots and capes of 1000 to 3000 j/kg. Some of the storms
will also have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values approach 1.5 inches late this afternoon
and evening.

Beyond today quiet weather is expected Sunday through next week
as upper level ridging builds across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico. There could be isolated diurnal thunderstorms in the
mountains due to upslope flow on heated elevated heat source but
confidence was not high enough to mention most days at this time.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal beneath the upper
ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  93  72 /  30  40  10   0
Carlsbad                       88  65  92  65 /  30  30  10   0
Dryden                         94  72  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  92  70  94  71 /  30  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  64  86  66 /  30  30   0  10
Hobbs                          83  64  88  65 /  40  30  10  10
Marfa                          85  62  86  62 /  40  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  92  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         89  70  91  70 /  30  40  10   0
Wink                           92  69  94  69 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-180915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
407 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 /307 AM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...AS WELL AS ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND