Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

September 15, 2016Eddy County, New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 15, 2016, 5:48 PM MDT for Eddy County, New Mexico. It was in force for 27 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 15, 2016, 5:48 PM MDT (23:48 UTC)
Expired: Sep 15, 2016, 6:15 PM MDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Eddy County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 172 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 15, 5:49 PM MDT	HAIL 1	5 S Artesia, NM	549 PM MDT.
Sep 15, 6:00 PM MDT	HAIL 1.75	Dayton, NM	10 MILES SOUTH OF ARTESIA AT 6 PM MDT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 15, 12:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1379 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 756 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 31 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

484 
WUUS54 KMAF 152348
SVRMAF
NMC015-160015-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0207.160915T2348Z-160916T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 615 PM MDT

* AT 547 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ATOCKA AND
  DAYTON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARTESIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
  MPH.

  HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARTESIA...SEVEN RIVERS AIRPORT...SEVEN RIVERS...LAKEWOOD...BRANTLEY
  LAKE STATE PARK...ATOKA AND DAYTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3270 10445 3283 10442 3286 10413 3258 10412
      3242 10448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 295DEG 18KT 3267 10428 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

49

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 15, 5:18 PM MDT, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 15, 5:18 PM MDT, 30 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are possible throughout the period with the best
chances being for CNM and HOB. Did not add TEMPO groups in for the
other terminals for now but will amend as necessary. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will remain fairly light out of the south.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings and visibilities around
12z for all terminals but the best chances will be for CNM and
HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough located over the Northern Rockies this morning
extends south to Mexico while the ridge over the east extends from
the Gulf to the Great Lakes.  The trough will tear in two with a
portion of it digging back to the SW and forming a cut off low by
Saturday.  Models eventually weaken this feature before sweeping it
east next week.

Models have been advertising fropas but these fronts have tended not
to end up making it here.  Now it appears do not have a significant
front arriving till the end of next week. As a result temps warm
above normal next week into the 90s.

Had morning storms over SE NM that have lingered into this afternoon
and drifted into Southern Lea and Western Permian Basin.  High pops
Friday and Friday night north as models develop good qpf along an E-
W trough/boundary.  Latest SWODY1 has SE NM in a slight risk severe
due to a lingering boundary... surface heating... good shear... and
nose of upper jet... now A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
until 02z.  Also SE NM... Upper Trans Pecos... and much of the
Permian Basin are in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall tonight.
Have increased pops tonight NW and will mention severe/flooding
potential in the HWO.  Rain chances will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  90  69  88 /  40  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       66  89  65  86 /  50  30  20  30
Dryden                         71  94  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  92  69  91 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 62  86  63  80 /  50  30  20  30
Hobbs                          64  84  63  84 /  50  50  40  40
Marfa                          58  85  58  83 /  30  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  91  69  88 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                         68  90  68  87 /  40  30  30  20
Wink                           69  92  68  90 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 15, 1:01 PM MDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
201 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 /101 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. SEE THE
WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...AS WELL AS ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 15, 4:02 PM MDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 W HOPE                32.82N 104.75W
09/15/2016                   EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT BECOMING CLOSER
            AS THEY REPORT IT ON THE PHONE.

&&

CMR

Local storm report, Sep 15, 4:23 PM MDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TORNADO          1 W HOPE                32.82N 104.75W
09/15/2016                   EDDY               NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JD

Local storm report, Sep 15, 4:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             10 W ARTESIA            32.85N 104.60W
09/15/2016  E0.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

MSCHULDT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 15, 1:56 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	34 min
Sep 15, 3:43 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Lea	62 min
Sep 15, 5:10 AM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Eddy, Lea	3 hr
Sep 15, 6:44 AM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Lea	2 hr
Sep 15, 3:02 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	58 min
Sep 15, 4:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	60 min
Sep 15, 4:08 PM MDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	MAF	Eddy	37 min
Sep 15, 4:58 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	62 min
Sep 15, 5:09 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.