Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

551 
WWUS54 KMAF 152234
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMC015-152300-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-160915T2300Z/
EDDY NM-
434 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY...

AT 433 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HOPE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARTESIA...HOPE...ARTESIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...ATOKA AND DAYTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. ABANDON VEHICLES IN
SEARCH OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PERMANENT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 10476 3289 10473 3288 10468 3289 10428
      3247 10452 3272 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 318DEG 7KT 3279 10467 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

49

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
210 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough located over the Northern Rockies this morning
extends south to Mexico while the ridge over the east extends from
the Gulf to the Great Lakes.  The trough will tear in two with a
portion of it digging back to the SW and forming a cut off low by
Saturday.  Models eventually weaken this feature before sweeping it
east next week.

Models have been advertising fropas but these fronts have tended not
to end up making it here.  Now it appears do not have a significant
front arriving till the end of next week. As a result temps warm
above normal next week into the 90s.

Had morning storms over SE NM that have lingered into this afternoon
and drifted into Southern Lea and Western Permian Basin.  High pops
Friday and Friday night north as models develop good qpf along an E-
W trough/boundary.  Latest SWODY1 has SE NM in a slight risk severe
due to a lingering boundary... surface heating... good shear... and
nose of upper jet... now A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
until 02z.  Also SE NM... Upper Trans Pecos... and much of the
Permian Basin are in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall tonight.
Have increased pops tonight NW and will mention severe/flooding
potential in the HWO.  Rain chances will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  90  69  88 /  40  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       66  89  65  86 /  50  30  20  30
Dryden                         71  94  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  92  69  91 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 62  86  63  80 /  50  30  20  30
Hobbs                          64  84  63  84 /  50  50  40  40
Marfa                          58  85  58  83 /  30  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  91  69  88 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                         68  90  68  87 /  40  30  30  20
Wink                           69  92  68  90 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

84/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
201 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 /101 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. SEE THE
WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...AS WELL AS ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND