Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Lubbock, TX

928 
WWUS54 KLUB 102131
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
431 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

TXC101-269-102145-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160410T2145Z/
COTTLE TX-KING TX-
431 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE AND NORTHEASTERN KING COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF
CHALK...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PADUCAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE AND NORTHEASTERN KING COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 10006 3380 10012 3394 10007 3393 10005
      3384 10005 3383 10000 3377 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 208DEG 21KT 3385 10005 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

714 
WWUS54 KLUB 102137
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
437 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

TXC101-269-102146-
/O.EXP.KLUB.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160410T2145Z/
COTTLE TX-KING TX-
437 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE AND
NORTHEASTERN KING COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND
MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3377 10006 3380 10012 3394 10007 3393 10005
      3384 10005 3383 10000 3377 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 208DEG 21KT 3385 10005 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED AT 1238 PM.
WEAVING DRYLINE WAS UNDERGOING A NORTHWARD SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE /DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION/ WHILE FARTHER SOUTH
THIS BDRY WAS BEGINNING TO BULGE EWD TO THE SOUTH OF YOAKUM AND
TERRY COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY EARLIER
ELEVATED STORMS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS THAT ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO
INGEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...COLD POOL MODIFICATION IS SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL BDRY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION.
OVERALL...FEEL THE GREATEST NEAR TERM SVR THREAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NRN ZONES WHERE BOTH SHEAR AND CAPE ARE ADEQUATE...HOWEVER AS
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SPREADS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS WE EXPECT THIS REGION OF LARGER CAPE TO GAIN THE FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZED SVR AND SUPERCELLS. AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST FROM
SRN AZ...DEEPER WESTERLIES WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE OUT OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BRUNT OF CONVECTION LIKELY PRECEDING THIS EXODUS.
DRIED POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH FITS THE
OVERALL NWP AND WPC QPF THEME WELL.

.LONG TERM...
WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED SHORT IN ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTION.  WEAK
RIDGING WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM
COMES ASHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE LATEST RUNS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
REALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO ARIZONA LEAVING LITTLE OTHER THAN
A BIT OF SEPARATION IN THE MEAN FLOW THOUGH SOME REGENERATION OCCURS
ONCE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.  NEXT SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TSTMS.

POSTFRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THAN IT
DID 24 HOURS AGO AND SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DRIED THINGS OUT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  SOME HINTS AT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE BE SHOWN
BY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO.  HAVE FURTHER TRIMMED THE POPS LEAVING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
EXPOSED AT THIS TIME ON TUESDAY.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS A BIT LESS CLEAR
AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS THE REGION.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
TRANQUIL DAY THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN WITH A RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME SEVERE...ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

TXZ021>044-112115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
407 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTH TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL STORMS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EFFECT
FOR ALL BUT YOAKUM COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY INTO THIS EVENING.