Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Have canceled SVR Watch in the cold pool in the wake of the
earlier convection. Ample insolation has allowed destabilization
across portions of central MO newd into west central IL. This area
is being monitored for severe potential and based on rapid growth
this morning, would expect strong/severe to develop shortly.
Trends will continue to be monitored and updated as soon as
possible as needed.

Tilly

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Sfc low continues to lift newd thru the area this afternoon. The
wrmfnt will slowly lift along with it, bringing a very unstable
airmass with it. While ongoing severe TSRA continue to push ewd in
IL, area across central MO continues to destabilize. This area
will become the focus for the next round of storms late this
afternoon thru the evening.

Guidance has room for improvement in the evolution for the
remainder of this event. Believe the NAM Nest, NSSL WRF and local
4km WRF are currently handling it best.

Environment over much of MO is recovering well ahead of the sfc
low with MUCAPE of 3000 J/kg or greater already. Based on the 18z
sounding from SGF, a small cap remains in place. Expect TSRA to
develop over the next few hours and move ewd thru the region
during the evening hours. Focus for convection shud shift swd
after Midnight tonight and out of the area by sunrise Thurs. Main
questions for this eve and overnight will be timing. Storms that
do develop will be capable of being severe.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

System to exit forecast area by Thursday morning. Could see some
lingering showers and thunderstorms over far southern portions of
forecast area through 18z Thursday. Then dry and cooler with highs
only in the low to mid 70s and lows Thursday night in the mid 40s to
low 50s.

Models continue to show next frontal boundary moving into northern
portions of forecast area by Friday afternoon. Some decent CAPES and
convergence along front, so SPC has placed areas along and north of
I70 in a marginal risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and
evening.

Then front exits region by day break on Saturday with dry wx for
remainder of weekend. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Some extended models bring next weather system into
southwestern MO by Sunday with some showers/storms developing and
spreading northeast towards forecast area late Sunday and Sunday
night. For now only have slight chance/low end chance pops during
this period. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday with several waves of activity. Temperatures to
remain at or below normal for this time of year.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Not a lot of change from previous thinking. TSRA likely this
evening, which may be severe. Best chances are for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS,
tho can not be ruled out for KUIN. Believe activity has shifted
east of KCOU. MVFR cigs are expected behind the fnt, tho timing
and exactly how low cigs will be remains uncertain. The cdfnt
will move thru the region, with winds shifting to the W to NW.
Winds will pick up on Thurs to around 12 kts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
334 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. HAIL IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
906 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HAIL             FESTUS                  38.22N  90.41W
05/11/2016  M0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             CRYSTAL CITY            38.23N  90.38W
05/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHWOODS               38.17N  90.83W
05/11/2016                   WASHINGTON         MO   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE SWIFT WATER RESCUES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
            WASHINGTON COUNTY. LOCATION APPROXIMATE.

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
916 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             2 E COLUMBIA            38.95N  92.29W
05/11/2016  M0.70 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
924 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

MOZ041-042-050-051-120315-
BOONE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-CALLAWAY MO-AUDRAIN MO-
924 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CALLAWAY...NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL AUDRAIN AND EAST CENTRAL BOONE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 924 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MURRY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FULTON...AUXVASSE...MARTINSBURG...MURRY...SHAMROCK...WILLIAMSBURG...KINGDOM
CITY AND HATTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN EXITS 133 AND 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3904 9222 3914 9160 3875 9163 3886 9224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 273DEG 24KT 3895 9214

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
925 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     HAIL             5 NNE BETHEL            39.95N  91.99W
05/11/2016  M0.70 INCH       SHELBY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY