Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Have canceled SVR Watch in the cold pool in the wake of the
earlier convection. Ample insolation has allowed destabilization
across portions of central MO newd into west central IL. This area
is being monitored for severe potential and based on rapid growth
this morning, would expect strong/severe to develop shortly.
Trends will continue to be monitored and updated as soon as
possible as needed.

Tilly

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Sfc low continues to lift newd thru the area this afternoon. The
wrmfnt will slowly lift along with it, bringing a very unstable
airmass with it. While ongoing severe TSRA continue to push ewd in
IL, area across central MO continues to destabilize. This area
will become the focus for the next round of storms late this
afternoon thru the evening.

Guidance has room for improvement in the evolution for the
remainder of this event. Believe the NAM Nest, NSSL WRF and local
4km WRF are currently handling it best.

Environment over much of MO is recovering well ahead of the sfc
low with MUCAPE of 3000 J/kg or greater already. Based on the 18z
sounding from SGF, a small cap remains in place. Expect TSRA to
develop over the next few hours and move ewd thru the region
during the evening hours. Focus for convection shud shift swd
after Midnight tonight and out of the area by sunrise Thurs. Main
questions for this eve and overnight will be timing. Storms that
do develop will be capable of being severe.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

System to exit forecast area by Thursday morning. Could see some
lingering showers and thunderstorms over far southern portions of
forecast area through 18z Thursday. Then dry and cooler with highs
only in the low to mid 70s and lows Thursday night in the mid 40s to
low 50s.

Models continue to show next frontal boundary moving into northern
portions of forecast area by Friday afternoon. Some decent CAPES and
convergence along front, so SPC has placed areas along and north of
I70 in a marginal risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and
evening.

Then front exits region by day break on Saturday with dry wx for
remainder of weekend. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Some extended models bring next weather system into
southwestern MO by Sunday with some showers/storms developing and
spreading northeast towards forecast area late Sunday and Sunday
night. For now only have slight chance/low end chance pops during
this period. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday with several waves of activity. Temperatures to
remain at or below normal for this time of year.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Not a lot of change from previous thinking. TSRA likely this
evening, which may be severe. Best chances are for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS,
tho can not be ruled out for KUIN. Believe activity has shifted
east of KCOU. MVFR cigs are expected behind the fnt, tho timing
and exactly how low cigs will be remains uncertain. The cdfnt
will move thru the region, with winds shifting to the W to NW.
Winds will pick up on Thurs to around 12 kts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
334 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. HAIL IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
812 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARK HILLS              37.85N  90.53W
05/11/2016                   ST. FRANCOIS       MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN PARK HILLS BETWEEN 7 PM AND
            730 PM.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
816 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             PARK HILLS              37.85N  90.53W
05/11/2016  M2.00 INCH       ST. FRANCOIS       MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. HAILED FOR 30
            MINUTES. VEHICLE DAMAGE.

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
817 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             ST. CLAIR               38.35N  90.98W
05/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
820 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             PARK HILLS              37.85N  90.53W
05/11/2016  M2.00 INCH       ST. FRANCOIS       MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. HAILED FOR 30
            MINUTES FROM 455 PM TO 525 PM. VEHICLE DAMAGE.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
825 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             PARK HILLS              37.85N  90.53W
05/11/2016  M2.00 INCH       ST. FRANCOIS       MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. HAILED FOR 30
            MINUTES FROM 600 PM TO 630 PM. VEHICLE DAMAGE.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
829 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     HAIL             LITCHFIELD              39.18N  89.66W
05/11/2016  M0.70 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY