Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
648 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

Focus thru the short term remains precip/heavy rainfall chances.

It seems rainfall rates have not been as high as prev anticipated.
However, much of the area within the watch has received anywhere
from 2" to upwards of 5" over the past 12 hours. Some of these areas
may not take much additional rainfall to see water issues. Will
therefore keep the Flash Flood Watch as-is for now.

The other factor playing into this is that mdls agree introducing
CAPE into the area today. While it is not much and is along the sern
portions of the CWA, it is enuf for concern.

Will need to monitor winds, mainly this morning. With some
cyclogenesis underway, the pressure gradient has increased, causing
some stronger winds just ahead of the sfc low. This shud continue as
the low moves newd thru the region. At this time, do not anticipate
long lived strong gusts.

Beyond tonight, continued a GFS/ECMWF compromise regarding PoPs as
the sfc fnt pushes SE of the region.

As for temps, continued a cool day today due to clouds/rain. Began a
rapid warm-up on Tues as mdls progd the thermal ridge pushing into
nrn portions of the CWA. This trend continues into Wed and have
trended aoa the warmer guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

Little change from previous forecast. EMCWF and GFS both are in
agreement that upper trough will move through the area Friday
night into Saturday morning. A surface high on Thursday moves out
ahead of cold front that pushes through early Saturday. The best
chance for precip will be at this time with scattered
thunderstorms possible. Surface high returns for Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures should be near normal with 850mb temps in the
mid to upper teens C with Sunday being the exception with slightly
below normal temps.

Walsh
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

Surface low over STL metro area to slowly lift out to the
northeast today. KCOU and KUIN remain on fringes of any activity,
so kept vicinity shower/IFR cig mention through midday.
Otherwise, metro area to see rain linger through the evening hours
with IFR/MVFR conditions. As for winds, will depend on relation to
surface low. KUIN will see northeast winds back to the north by
midday, while KCOU will have north winds backing to the northwest
by mid afternoon. Southeast winds to persist over STL metro area,
then veer to the southwest to west as low exits region.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Surface low over STL metro area to slowly lift out to the
northeast today. Metro area to see rain linger through 06z Tuesday
with IFR/MVFR conditions. As for winds, will depend on relation
to surface low. Southeast winds to persist over STL metro area,
then veer to the southwest to west as low exits region.

Byrd
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     76  69  86  70 / 100  60  30  10
Quincy          77  65  86  67 /  30  20  10  10
Columbia        76  64  87  65 /  30  20  10   5
Jefferson City  77  65  87  66 /  40  20  10   5
Salem           78  67  79  67 / 100  70  50  10
Farmington      75  65  79  65 / 100  60  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Bond IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
425 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FREEBURG                38.43N  89.91W
08/15/2016  M3.18 INCH       ST. CLAIR          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  38.50N  90.64W
08/15/2016  M3.98 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOR TOTAL

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
721 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  38.50N  90.64W
08/15/2016  M3.98 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EDWARDSVILLE            38.80N  89.97W
08/15/2016  M4.10 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
823 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENTWOOD               38.62N  90.35W
08/15/2016                   ST. LOUIS          MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES IN THE CITY OF BRENTWOOD.

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
829 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ST. ANN                 38.73N  90.39W
08/15/2016  M3.60 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 HOUR RAIN TOTAL

&&

WALSH