River Flood Warning 62, NWS St. Louis, MO

074 
WGUS83 KLSX 151632
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1132 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Bourbeuse River at Union


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC071-151702-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160820T0112Z/
/UNNM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1132 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Bourbeuse River at Union.
* At 11:00 AM Monday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* The river will crest below flood stage at 11.2 feet Wednesday 
  morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     08/16  08/17  08/18  08/19  08/20

Bourbeuse River
  Union           15.0    6.59       9.7   11.2    8.3    5.3    3.9


&&


LAT...LON 3826 9123 3832 9133 3838 9137 3848 9094
      3842 9087                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
601 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

Main focus remains on the potential for significant flash flooding
over the southeast half of the area through Monday night.  Some
locations from the past few days have already received 2 to 4
inches rain, and there is the potential for additional 2 to 5+
inches of rain before the system moves out of the area by Tuesday.
Made no changes to current flash flood watch.

Upper air analysis this morning showed a dry air minimum just
northwest of 850mb low which was located over the Arklatex with a
stripe of 16-18C dewpoints wrapping to its south and east from the
TX Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley.  There was a modest low level jet
on the east side of the 850mb low which nose was into the steep
moisture gradient across eastern Missouri and central/southern
Illinois.  The GFS/ECMWF/SREF are in decent agreement that this low
will move northeastward into southern Missouri tonight and across
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois on Monday.  A band of strong
low level moisture convergence will set up to the east and south of
the low on the nose of the low level jet allowing for constant
shower and thunderstorm development. The low level convergence in
concert with decent upper level dynamics from the mid level trough
and entrance region of jet streak will be more than enough to
support sustained ascent over the region.  The anomalously high
atmospheric moisture that is available to this system and the deep
layer warm cloud depths favor very heavy rainfall rates tonight into
Monday night.  Also suspect that showers and thunderstorms will be
training at times during this event.  850mb low begins to move off
to the east on Monday night, and best parameters for heavy rainfall
begins to shift into southeast Missouri and south central Illinois.
It still looks like rain chances begin to taper off by Tuesday as
the upper trough begins to move across the area.

With that said, expect area of showers currently producing moderate
to heavy rainfall over far southeast Missouri will move north into
the area later this afternoon and this evening.  Expect the heaviest
of the rainfall to be over southeast Missouri this evening and then
spread into east central Missouri and southwest Illinois overnight
and Monday morning.  The heavy rainfall will likely linger over
south central Illinois into southeast Missouri on Monday afternoon
into Monday evening.

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be held below normal
because of the rain and the clouds.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

ECMWF and GFS are in relatively good agreement that upper troughs
will move across the area on Wednesday and Saturday, though the
ECMWF has a much deeper trough on Saturday than the GFS.  A surface
high will move across the area on Wednesday and then moisture will
return to the area late in the week as the atmosphere will become
unstable each day allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop.
The best chance for rain will be next weekend when the front passes
through the area ahead of the upper trough.  Temperatures should be
seasonable with 850mb temperatures in the upper teens C.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

Rain shield across southeast MO and southwest IL will shift
northward through the St Louis metro area late tonight and Monday.
The rainfall should also get heavier late tonight due to an
intensifying southerly low level jet ahead of an approaching low
moving from AR into south central MO. Some of this rain may at
least briefly spread as far west as COU and as far north as UIN
by Monday morning. The prevailing cloud ceiling will lower into
the IFR catagory in the St Louis metro area late tonight, and into
the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU by Monday morning. Sourtheasterly
surface wind will back around to an east-northeasterly direction
on Monday as the surface low moves northeastward through east
central MO.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Rain shield across southeast MO and southwest IL
will shift northward through the STL area late tonight and
Monday. The rainfall should also get heavier late tonight due to
an intensifying southerly low level jet ahead of an approaching
low moving from AR into south central MO.  The prevailing cloud
ceiling will lower into the IFR catagory late tonight and may
remain IFR through the remainder of the forecast period. East-
sourtheasterly surface wind will back around to an east-
northeasterly direction on Monday as the surface low moves
northeastward through east central MO, then west-northwesterly
Monday night as the low moves into IL.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Bond IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
349 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
841 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW MAEYSTOWN         38.20N  90.25W
08/14/2016  M2.50 INCH       MONROE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 5PM YESTERDAY.

&&

KANOFSKY