Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 436 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Robust line of severe storms continues to barrel across central
Kentucky. Though the chances of severe weather will diminish as the
line heads to the east, had to extend the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
eastward anyway as the line will be threatening those areas shortly.

Dropped counties west of the line.

Flooding will continue to be a problem as the storms cross southern
Kentucky with rainfall rates around an inch per hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Lots of light to moderate rain across the region this hour, but
heavier rains continue near our border with TN. Have issued several
flash flood warnings. Rain rates from the KY mesonet as well as MRMS
have varied from 4-6 inches/hour in the more intense cells.

The wave that is generating this heavy rain is well initialized in
the models. As the morning progresses, this wave should head into
eastern KY, leaving a boundary that carves a path around our
southern forecast area, if not just south of it. The NAM tries to
keep our south and east rainy through the morning hours, whereas the
Hi-res WRF's our local WRF and the HRRR portray the more likely
solution of a drying out period in the wake of the wave and also as
isentropic lift weakens across the region.

By this afternoon, expect a boundary to remain somewhere across our
south, which when combined with heating, should allow additional
storms to develop. Latest WRF-NMM and GFS supports this thinking,
but given other models keep rain chances elsewhere, will have at
least a slight chance areawide in the mid afternoon to early evening
hours. As was the case yesterday, with warm highs and plenty of
moisture, CAPEs will be high, but some drier air aloft also will
make DCAPEs fairly high, so damaging wind is a threat in addition to
heavy rains. Freezing levels look too high for any hail threat today.

Tonight's storm chances will depend on upstream development. Latest
GFS and Euro would have another MCS develop over the Upper Midwest
and track east southeast. This track would have it just clip our
northern forecast area. Given the boundary left in the wake of
convection this morning, would not be surprised if these storms
track a little farther south. The remains of this system, along with
a trough heading over the Upper Midwest should serve as a focus for
new storms Friday afternoon. Wind fields are a bit stronger aloft,
but unidirectional, so storms could see some organization as they
develop over our region and travel eastward. Precipitable waters
remain high so once again flash flooding is possible.

The only other concern in the forecast is for heat indices Friday
afternoon. Given a potential for a later start to storms that day,
we should see highs rise into the lower 90s for most locations.
Combined with the present humidity, that should make for heat
indices close to advisory range, especially along and west of a
Louisville to Campbellsville line.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

GFS/Euro still force any convection to just along or south of the
KY/TN border for the weekend, so most of the area should be dry.
That moisture may try and sneak back in here for the next work week,
resulting in daily chances of scattered storms. Temperatures will be
near normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Storms will move through from west to east early this
evening...should be out of the area around 01Z. These storms may
produce strong wind gusts, though locally heavy downpours on
saturated ground may be the main concern. Trees may be more easily
toppled by sub-severe winds given the soaked ground.

Moving into the overnight hours, the HRRR and SPC HRRR, which have
been doing the best among the models today, have shown inter- and
intra-run consistency advertising another round of storms overnight
as a 5H wave over Kansas today moves into the Ohio Valley tonight.
Those models also did an exemplary job with the overnight convection
last night. If these forecast storms do materialize, then there will
be additional flash flooding concerns tonight even though the
overnight storms are not expected to be particularly strong. After
chatting with neighboring offices, have decided to extend the Flash
Flood Watch through the night.

Any overnight storms should move off to the east by the time the sun
comes up on Friday. We should have several dry hours for much of the
day on Friday until a cold front approaches toward evening.

The atmosphere is expected to become extremely unstable Friday
afternoon with CAPE 3k-4k J/kg and LI to -9C. Shear and surface
convergence won't be particularly strong, and there will be some mid-
level capping to overcome, but the invading front should help to
spark storms. Precipitable water values will pool around two inches
ahead of the boundary, so locally torrential downpours will be
possible late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Strong DCAPE,
dry air aloft, and unidirectional shear suggest gusty winds will be
the main severe threat. The most likely area for strong storms
and locally heavy downpours looks to be southern Kentucky.

Heat index readings will peak around 100F Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ026-027-061>066-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........13
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

KYZ026-027-061>065-070>078-081-082-081915-
OHIO-GRAYSON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-
ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...
GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
314 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 /214 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...WITH THE SOAKED GROUND, TREES MAY BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING UPROOTED BY WINDS BELOW NORMAL SEVERE
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ078-079-091-092-KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-067-081915-
SCOTT-JEFFERSON-FLOYD-CLARK-BULLITT-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-
FRANKLIN-HARRISON-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
NELSON-WASHINGTON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-
LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...
MILTON...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...STANFORD
314 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ076-077-083-084-089-090-KYZ023>025-028-053-081915-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-HANCOCK-
BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-HARDIN-LARUE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...ENGLISH...
TELL CITY...CORYDON...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...ELIZABETHTOWN...HODGENVILLE
314 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 /214 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...WITH THE SOAKED GROUND,
TREES MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING UPROOTED BY WINDS BELOW
NORMAL SEVERE CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ066-081915-
CASEY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LIBERTY
314 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASEY COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ANY STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
422 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                36.73N 86.57W
07/07/2016                   SIMPSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. SOME COUNTY ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE
            TO HIGH WATER.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLASGOW                 37.00N 85.92W
07/07/2016                   BARREN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PART OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF A BUILDING.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
431 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     BONNIEVILLE             37.38N 85.90W
07/07/2016  M64 MPH          HART               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN HORSE CAVE AND
            MUNFORDVILLE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
443 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOTTSVILLE             36.75N 86.20W
07/07/2016                   ALLEN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED
            THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. MANY ROADS CLOSED DUE
            TO HIGH WATER.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
445 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE HAYS              37.02N 86.10W
07/07/2016  M50 MPH          BARREN             KY   MESONET

            BARREN COUNTY MESONET SITE.

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
448 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

INZ090-KYZ025-028>030-072130-
HARRISON-JEFFERSON-HARDIN-MEADE-BULLITT-
448 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL MEADE...NORTHEASTERN
HARDIN AND BULLITT COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CORYDON TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISVILLE...SHEPHERDSVILLE...PIONEER VILLAGE...HOLLYVILLA...SOUTH PARK
VIEW...OKOLONA...MINOR LANE HEIGHTS...VALLEY STATION...PLEASURE RIDGE PAR
AND PLEASURE RIDGE PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3817 8567 3792 8557 3791 8558 3788 8558
      3787 8560 3787 8561 3786 8561 3784 8601
      3815 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 253DEG 27KT 3817 8611 3783 8596

ZT